Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W52-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-23 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W21-13 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W34-31 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W32-31 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W42-32 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | L17-31 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L10-49 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:37% | |
| 14 | 11/27 | Win prob:21% | |
| 12/13 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 3.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-2 | 23.9% | 25.0% |
| 6-3 | 45.9% | 4.3% |
| 5-4 | 26.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.4% (+0.0%) | 11.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (+4.0%) | 10.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.6% (-10.8%) | 29.7% (+18.3%) | |
| 11.5% (+0.0%) | 11.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 10.8% (-0.6%) | 17.3% (+5.9%) | |
| 10.9% (-0.5%) | 12.1% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Tulsa
Florida AtlanticNavy
Charlotte
UABCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NavyCCG: 29.7% • Scenario: 37.0%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.5%Any 1 loss
24.9%
23.9%
99.8%
4.2%
11.4%
13.6%
3.1%
6.1%Any 2 losses
8.7%
22.8%11.3%
15.8%3.1%
7.0%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09