American Athletic Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 109 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 68.5% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 21.5% East CarolinaECUSouth FloridaUSF 8.7%	4.8%
8-1 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 99.2%	1.8%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 42.6% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 39.3% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 18.1%	1.6%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 65.1% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 34.9%	1.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 63.4% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 34.5% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 2.0%	1.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT	1.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 38.0% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 32.1% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 29.9%	0.9%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMTulaneTULN	0.8%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 95.0% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 5.1%	0.7%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT	0.7%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 89.5% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 6.7% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 3.3%	0.7%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMTulaneTULN	0.6%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF	0.6%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 50.9% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 36.1% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 8.9%	0.6%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 69.4% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 10.7% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 10.2%	0.6%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 74.9% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 25.1%	0.4%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMTulaneTULN	0.4%
7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 52.5% MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 34.3% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 4.9%	0.4%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMTulaneTULN	0.3%
8-1 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 96.2% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 2.8% East CarolinaECUSouth FloridaUSF 1.1%	0.3%
7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 56.1% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 36.1% MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 5.0%	0.3%
7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 37.7% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 31.3% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 24.9%	0.3%
7-2 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 50.6% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 21.6% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 19.6%	0.2%
8-1 East CarolinaECU North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 63.8% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 31.7% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 4.5%	0.2%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 76.6% South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 22.5%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 73.0% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 27.0%	0.2%
7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 50.7% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 36.5% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 7.3%	0.2%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 83.0% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 17.0%	0.2%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 39.3% East CarolinaECUSouth FloridaUSF 27.6% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 25.7%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT	0.2%
7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNavyNAVY 82.3% MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 15.4% MemphisMEMTulaneTULN 1.1%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 79.9% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 12.5% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 7.6%	0.2%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 66.3% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 33.7%	0.2%
8-1 East CarolinaECU 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain East CarolinaECUNavyNAVY 66.7% East CarolinaECUSouth FloridaUSF 15.8% East CarolinaECUNorth TexasUNT 12.7%	0.2%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 73.0% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 27.0%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 98.0% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 1.9%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 86.7% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 13.3%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 88.8% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 11.2%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT 95.7% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 4.3%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 73.6% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 26.4%	0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF	CCG participants not 100% certain South FloridaUSFTulaneTULN 86.1% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 9.8% North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 4.1%	0.1%
7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT South FloridaUSF TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 63.6% NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT 22.7% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 13.6%	0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 East CarolinaECU MemphisMEM NavyNAVY TulaneTULN	MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT	0.1%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 73.0% NavyNAVYSouth FloridaUSF 27.0%	0.1%
8-1 South FloridaUSF 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain MemphisMEMSouth FloridaUSF 71.6% North TexasUNTSouth FloridaUSF 28.4%	0.1%
8-1 NavyNAVY North TexasUNT TulaneTULN	NavyNAVYNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 East CarolinaECU NavyNAVY North TexasUNT	CCG participants not 100% certain North TexasUNTTulaneTULN 51.6% NavyNAVYTulaneTULN 40.9% East CarolinaECUTulaneTULN 7.5%	<0.1%
8-1 North TexasUNT 7-2 MemphisMEM NavyNAVY South FloridaUSF	MemphisMEMNorth TexasUNT	<0.1%
8-1 TulaneTULN 7-2 MemphisMEM North TexasUNT	MemphisMEMTulaneTULN	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Common conference opponents → Overall winning percentage

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.