Conference USA Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 68 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 51.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 48.9%	7.9%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 45.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 42.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 12.4%	5.1%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 34.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 33.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 32.2%	4.5%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	3.2%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 50.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 49.7%	3.1%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 40.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 38.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 21.8%	2.8%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 34.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 33.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 32.4%	1.8%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 27.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 25.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 23.6%	1.8%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 35.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 33.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 31.8%	1.7%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 50.1% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 34.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 15.6%	1.4%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 27.7% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 25.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 24.1%	1.3%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 59.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 40.6%	1.2%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	1.1%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	1.1%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 71.2% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 28.8%	1.1%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 85.7% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 14.3%	0.8%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 37.4% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 35.2% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 27.4%	0.8%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 37.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 32.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 30.1%	0.7%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 52.8% Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 26.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 21.0%	0.6%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 63.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 36.6%	0.6%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 51.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 48.4%	0.5%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 51.8% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 48.1%	0.5%
9-0 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 78.1% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 21.9%	0.5%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 90.8% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 4.9% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 4.3%	0.5%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 22.6% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 19.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 16.1%	0.5%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 84.0% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 9.7% Kennesaw StateKENNLibertyLIB 6.3%	0.5%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST	0.4%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 35.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 34.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 29.2%	0.4%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 29.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 26.2% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 22.6%	0.4%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	0.3%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 71.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 15.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 12.6%	0.3%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 35.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 34.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 29.1%	0.3%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 52.4% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 47.6%	0.3%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 12.9% Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 12.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 11.6%	0.2%
8-1 Missouri StateMOST 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 38.6% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 35.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 26.4%	0.2%
9-0 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNWestern KentuckyWKU 37.5% Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 32.4% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 30.1%	0.2%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 28.5% Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 27.5% Kennesaw StateKENNLibertyLIB 23.7%	0.2%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 52.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 47.9%	0.2%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 53.8% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 46.2%	0.2%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 30.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 19.5% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 15.4%	0.2%
8-1 Missouri StateMOST 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain LibertyLIBMissouri StateMOST 29.5% Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 28.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 22.0%	0.1%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST	0.1%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 52.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 47.8%	0.1%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 52.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 34.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 13.6%	<0.1%
8-1 Kennesaw StateKENN 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB	Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN	<0.1%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU	<0.1%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Kennesaw StateKENN Missouri StateMOST	CCG participants not 100% certain Kennesaw StateKENNMissouri StateMOST 59.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTMissouri StateMOST 30.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTKennesaw StateKENN 10.5%	<0.1%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Missouri StateMOST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 50.6% Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU 49.4%	<0.1%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	<0.1%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Kennesaw StateKENN LibertyLIB Missouri StateMOST	Missouri StateMOSTWestern KentuckyWKU	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank → Computer rankings composite → Academic Progress Rate

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.