Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
47.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | W35-7 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W45-26 | |
| 9 | 10/28 | W33-20 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W24-21 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:25% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:27% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 27.1% | 95.4% |
| 6-2 | 49.2% | 34.0% |
| 5-3 | 19.4% | 0.4% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.7% (-0.3%) | 47.2% (+0.2%) | |
| 47.0% (+0.0%) | 46.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 56.9% (+9.9%) | 44.5% (-2.5%) | |
| 47.0% (+0.1%) | 47.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 46.0% (-1.0%) | 50.3% (+3.4%) | |
| 49.8% (+2.8%) | 45.9% (-1.0%) | |
| 80.3% (+33.3%) | 35.9% (-11.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Washington State
Sam Houston
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico StateKennesaw StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 80.3% • Scenario: 24.9%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
4.3%Any 1 loss
95.4%
27.1%
100.0%
11.6%
92.0%
13.1%
91.5%
2.4%Any 2 losses
34.0%
49.2%38.0%
35.5%27.7%
6.5%19.9%
7.2%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09