Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 5-0 | 6-3 | 89.4% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 5-0 | 7-2 | 47.0% | |
| 3 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 5-1 | 7-2 | 40.2% | |
| 4 |  Missouri StateMOST | 4-1 | 6-3 | 16.9% | |
| 5 |  LibertyLIB | 3-2 | 4-5 | 6.5% | |
| T6 |  Louisiana TechLT | 3-3 | 5-4 | <0.1% | |
| T6 |  DelawareDEL | 3-3 | 5-4 | <0.1% | |
| 8 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 2-3 | 4-5 | - | |
| 9 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| 10 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-5 | 3-6 | - | |
| T11 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-5 | 1-8 | - | |
| T11 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-5 | 1-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 89.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 89.5% (+0.1%) | 89.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 89.4% (-0.1%) | 89.8% (+0.4%) | |
| 90.8% (+1.4%) | 89.1% (-0.4%) | |
| 90.1% (+0.6%) | 89.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 89.4% (+0.0%) | 89.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 92.0% (+2.5%) | 88.5% (-0.9%) | |
| 70.3% (-19.1%) | 95.8% (+6.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam HoustonMiddle TennesseeNew Mexico StateUTEPCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 95.8% • Scenario: 75.1%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Sam HoustonMiddle TennesseeFlorida InternationalUTEPJacksonville StateLouisiana TechMiddle TennesseeNew Mexico StateLibertyJacksonville StateData from 2025-11-09
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 96.4% | 39.0% | - | 89.4% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 95.4% | 34.0% | 0.4% | 47.0% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | - | 98.3% | 31.7% | 0.4% | 40.2% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 93.3% | 18.9% | 0.1% | 16.9% |
| LibertyLIB | - | - | 23.7% | 0.1% | 6.5% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | - | 0.1% | <0.1% |
| DelawareDEL | - | - | - | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-11-09
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(5-0) | 44.7% | 41.3% | 12.8% | 1.3% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.3 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(5-0) | 4.3% | 27.1% | 49.2% | 19.4% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(5-1) | - | 19.8% | 65.1% | 15.0% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| Missouri StateMOST(4-1) | - | 10.3% | 38.3% | 41.0% | 10.4% | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| LibertyLIB(3-2) | - | - | 27.1% | 47.2% | 22.6% | 3.1% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| DelawareDEL(3-3) | - | - | - | 67.4% | 29.8% | 2.8% | - | - | - | 4.6 |
| Louisiana TechLT(3-3) | - | - | - | 31.2% | 49.6% | 19.2% | - | - | - | 4.1 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(2-3) | - | - | - | 3.5% | 27.0% | 54.3% | 15.2% | - | - | 3.2 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 3.8% | 25.1% | 49.0% | 22.1% | - | 2.1 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 22.0% | 51.8% | 26.2% | - | 2.0 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 6.6% | 36.8% | 45.7% | 10.9% | 1.4 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 0.8% | 10.1% | 39.4% | 49.7% | 0.6 |
Data from 2025-11-09