Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
40.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W41-24 | |
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-6 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L21-45 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W31-16 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W27-22 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | W27-24 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | L6-25 | |
| 8 | 10/21 | W28-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W35-16 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:11% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:25% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 19.8% | 98.3% |
| 6-2 | 65.1% | 31.7% |
| 5-3 | 15.0% | 0.4% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 40.3% (+0.1%) | 40.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 40.3% (+0.1%) | 39.6% (-0.6%) | |
| 13.2% (-27.0%) | 46.9% (+6.7%) | |
| 39.4% (-0.8%) | 40.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.0% (-1.2%) | 44.3% (+4.1%) | |
| 44.6% (+4.4%) | 38.6% (-1.6%) | |
| 28.4% (-11.8%) | 44.1% (+3.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State
Florida International
Missouri State
Kennesaw StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western Kentucky
Jacksonville StateCCG: 52.2% • Scenario: 60.2%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.4%
2.2%Any 1 loss
79.0%
24.8%
98.3%
17.6%58.5%
0.5%29.8%
6.7%Any 2 losses
31.7%
57.9%52.2%
4.3%30.0%
53.6%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09