Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W19-8 | |
| 7 | 10/14 | W30-27 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W59-30 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | L17-21 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:77% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:48% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 27.1% | 23.7% |
| 5-3 | 47.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 22.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6% (+0.2%) | 6.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.5% (-0.0%) | 6.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.7% (+5.2%) | 5.2% (-1.3%) | |
| 6.5% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.4% (+1.9%) | 0.1% (-6.4%) | |
| 8.9% (+2.4%) | 5.6% (-0.9%) | |
| 2.7% (-3.7%) | 7.7% (+1.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana Tech
Sam Houston
Middle Tennessee
New Mexico State
UTEP
Kennesaw StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Liberty
Jacksonville StateCCG: 10.0% • Scenario: 57.9%
Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09