Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-09

Mid-American ConferenceConference Standings

T1OhioOHIO4-16-374.5%
T1Miami OHM-OH4-15-453.7%
T1BuffaloBUF4-15-425.0%
T1W MichiganWMU4-15-421.0%
T5ToledoTOL3-25-424.2%
T5C MichiganCMU3-25-41.4%
T5Ball StBALL3-24-50.1%
8AkronAKR3-34-6-
9KentKENT2-33-6-
10E MichiganEMU2-43-7-
11N IllinoisNIU1-42-7-
12Bowling GreenBGSU1-53-7-
13MassachusettsMASS0-50-9-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Mid-American Conference CCG Matchups

134.7%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
OHIOOhio
217.5%
BuffaloBUF
vs
OHIOOhio
316.4%
OhioOHIO
vs
TOLToledo
410.7%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
WMUW Michigan
55.2%
OhioOHIO
vs
WMUW Michigan
64.6%
BuffaloBUF
vs
M-OHMiami OH
73.5%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
TOLToledo
83.1%
ToledoTOL
vs
WMUW Michigan
91.7%
BuffaloBUF
vs
WMUW Michigan
101.1%
BuffaloBUF
vs
TOLToledo
110.7%
C MichiganCMU
vs
OHIOOhio
120.3%
C MichiganCMU
vs
M-OHMiami OH
130.3%
C MichiganCMU
vs
WMUW Michigan
140.1%
BuffaloBUF
vs
CMUC Michigan
15<0.1%
Ball StBALL
vs
OHIOOhio

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Mid-American Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 74.5%
Game
OhioCCG OddsAway
OhioCCG OddsHome
N IllinoisNIU@MassachusettsMASS
74.6%
(+0.0%)		74.2%
(-0.3%)
ToledoTOL@Miami OHM-OH
74.4%
(-0.1%)		74.7%
(+0.1%)
KentKENT@AkronAKR
75.0%
(+0.5%)		74.3%
(-0.2%)
BuffaloBUF@C MichiganCMU
74.3%
(-0.2%)		74.8%
(+0.3%)
OhioOHIO@W MichiganWMU
90.1%
(+15.6%)		32.1%
(-42.4%)
E MichiganEMU@Ball StBALL
74.6%
(+0.1%)		74.3%
(-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for Ohio

MassachusettsMassachusettsMiami OHMiami (OH)KentKent StateC MichiganCentral MichiganOhioOhioBall StBall State

CCG: 96.2% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Ohio

OhioOhio

CCG: 90.1% • Scenario: 73.1%

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team7-16-25-3Overall
OhioOHIO100%56.2%0.5%74.5%
Miami OHM-OH100%55.7%2.3%53.7%
BuffaloBUF100%49.0%-25.0%
ToledoTOL-67.0%0.2%24.2%
W MichiganWMU100%33.4%0.2%21.0%
C MichiganCMU-20.8%<0.1%1.4%
Ball StBALL-87.1%0.5%0.1%
AkronAKR----
Bowling GreenBGSU----
E MichiganEMU----
KentKENT----
MassachusettsMASS----
N IllinoisNIU----

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team7-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
OhioOHIO(4-1)51.9%40.2%7.8%<0.1%----6.4
Miami OHM-OH(4-1)26.3%48.3%24.0%1.4%----6.0
W MichiganWMU(4-1)8.6%37.0%41.2%13.2%----5.4
BuffaloBUF(4-1)8.0%34.7%42.6%14.7%----5.4
ToledoTOL(3-2)-36.0%49.9%13.6%0.5%---5.2
C MichiganCMU(3-2)-6.6%36.0%47.4%9.9%---4.4
AkronAKR(3-3)--12.4%63.1%24.5%---3.9
Ball StBALL(3-2)-<0.1%3.9%36.9%59.2%---3.4
N IllinoisNIU(1-4)---40.2%50.1%9.2%0.4%-3.3
E MichiganEMU(2-4)---24.6%54.3%21.1%--3.0
Bowling GreenBGSU(1-5)----71.2%26.3%2.5%-2.7
KentKENT(2-3)--0.5%8.7%39.6%51.2%--2.6
MassachusettsMASS(0-5)----<0.1%1.6%22.1%76.3%0.3

Data from 2025-11-09 • SportsSimulate.com