Mid-American Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 68 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL	OhioOHIOToledoTOL	6.4%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	4.8%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 BuffaloBUF ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain OhioOHIOToledoTOL 94.7% BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO 5.3%	3.6%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 80.1% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 19.9%	3.0%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	3.0%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO	BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH	2.3%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	2.3%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 58.9% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 41.1%	2.2%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	2.2%
7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO 67.7% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 20.1% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 12.2%	2.1%
7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 56.2% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 40.1% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 3.7%	2.1%
8-1 BuffaloBUF 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	1.8%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 BuffaloBUF ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain OhioOHIOToledoTOL 99.5%	1.7%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	OhioOHIOToledoTOL	1.6%
7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 63.5% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 33.2% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 3.3%	1.6%
7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO 96.5% OhioOHIOToledoTOL 3.5%	1.5%
8-1 BuffaloBUF 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	1.4%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 87.2% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 7.5% OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU 5.3%	1.4%
7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO 92.1% OhioOHIOToledoTOL 7.9%	1.3%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU	1.2%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	ToledoTOLWestern MichiganWMU	1.2%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Central MichiganCMU Miami (OH)M-OH	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	1.1%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	1.1%
8-1 BuffaloBUF 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	0.9%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU	0.9%
7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 57.7% Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 42.3%	0.8%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU	0.8%
7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain ToledoTOLWestern MichiganWMU 95.2% OhioOHIOToledoTOL 4.8%	0.8%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 BuffaloBUF Western MichiganWMU	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	0.8%
8-1 BuffaloBUF 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	BuffaloBUFToledoTOL	0.7%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU	0.6%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 BuffaloBUF Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 57.8% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 42.2%	0.6%
8-1 BuffaloBUF 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH	0.6%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Central MichiganCMU Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU 50.6% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 49.4%	0.5%
7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	0.5%
7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFWestern MichiganWMU 39.0% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 36.4% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 24.6%	0.4%
7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 71.0% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 29.0%	0.4%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	ToledoTOLWestern MichiganWMU	0.4%
7-2 Central MichiganCMU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 74.1% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 23.9% Central MichiganCMUMiami (OH)M-OH 2.0%	0.4%
7-2 Central MichiganCMU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 77.9% Central MichiganCMUMiami (OH)M-OH 22.1%	0.4%
8-1 BuffaloBUF 7-2 ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	BuffaloBUFWestern MichiganWMU	0.4%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Central MichiganCMU OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 82.0% Central MichiganCMUMiami (OH)M-OH 18.0%	0.3%
8-1 BuffaloBUF 7-2 OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	0.3%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFWestern MichiganWMU 63.8% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 36.2%	0.3%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO	OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU	0.3%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL	ToledoTOLWestern MichiganWMU	0.3%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Central MichiganCMU OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU	0.3%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Central MichiganCMU Western MichiganWMU	OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU	0.3%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 77.0% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 23.0%	0.3%
7-2 BuffaloBUF ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFToledoTOL 51.0% ToledoTOLWestern MichiganWMU 49.0%	0.3%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → Common conference opponents → Next-highest opponent → Strength of schedule → Team Rating Score

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.