Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
74.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L31-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L9-37 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W52-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W35-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W48-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W28-21 | |
| 10 | 11/04 | W24-20 | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:73% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 51.9% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 40.2% | 56.2% |
| 5-3 | 7.8% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 74.6% (+0.0%) | 74.2% (-0.3%) | |
| 74.4% (-0.1%) | 74.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 75.0% (+0.5%) | 74.3% (-0.2%) | |
| 74.3% (-0.2%) | 74.8% (+0.3%) | |
| 90.1% (+15.6%) | 32.1% (-42.4%) | |
| 74.6% (+0.1%) | 74.3% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Miami (OH)
Kent State
Central MichiganOhio
Ball StateCCG: 96.2% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 90.1% • Scenario: 73.1%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
51.9%Any 1 loss
56.2%
40.1%91.8%
0.6%
66.0%
20.3%
44.8%
19.2%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09