Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L23-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W45-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L7-28 | |
| 11 | 11/05 | W42-3 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 36.0% | 67.0% |
| 5-3 | 49.9% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 13.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.3% (+0.1%) | 22.9% (-1.3%) | |
| 49.8% (+25.6%) | 0.1% (-24.1%) | |
| 23.7% (-0.5%) | 24.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 23.4% (-0.8%) | 25.5% (+1.3%) | |
| 24.5% (+0.3%) | 23.3% (-0.9%) | |
| 23.4% (-0.7%) | 25.6% (+1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MassachusettsToledo
Kent State
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Ball StateCCG: 83.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 49.8% • Scenario: 48.5%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
67.0%
36.0%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09