Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W28-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L16-24 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W28-3 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:46% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-11-09
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 8.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 34.7% | 49.0% |
| 5-3 | 42.6% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 14.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-09
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-09
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.0% (-0.1%) | 25.5% (+0.5%) | |
| 21.1% (-3.9%) | 28.7% (+3.7%) | |
| 25.4% (+0.3%) | 24.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 34.2% (+9.2%) | 9.8% (-15.3%) | |
| 25.9% (+0.8%) | 22.8% (-2.2%) | |
| 25.4% (+0.4%) | 24.3% (-0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northern Illinois
Miami (OH)
AkronBuffalo
Ohio
Eastern MichiganCCG: 46.3% • Scenario: 10.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BuffaloCCG: 34.2% • Scenario: 62.5%
Data from 2025-11-09
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.0%Data from 2025-11-09
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-09