Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-11-16

Mid-American ConferenceConference Standings

1W MichiganWMU5-16-470.8%
T2ToledoTOL4-26-473.3%
T2Miami OHM-OH4-25-529.6%
T2OhioOHIO4-26-415.0%
T2BuffaloBUF4-25-55.8%
T2C MichiganCMU4-26-45.5%
T7Ball StBALL3-34-6<0.1%
T7KentKENT3-34-6-
T9AkronAKR3-44-7-
T9E MichiganEMU3-44-7-
11N IllinoisNIU2-43-7-
12Bowling GreenBGSU1-53-7-
13MassachusettsMASS0-60-10-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Mid-American Conference CCG Matchups

148.3%
ToledoTOL
vs
WMUW Michigan
214.4%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
WMUW Michigan
312.2%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
TOLToledo
48.3%
OhioOHIO
vs
TOLToledo
54.5%
BuffaloBUF
vs
TOLToledo
64.2%
OhioOHIO
vs
WMUW Michigan
73.4%
C MichiganCMU
vs
WMUW Michigan
81.9%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
OHIOOhio
91.0%
C MichiganCMU
vs
M-OHMiami OH
100.6%
BuffaloBUF
vs
WMUW Michigan
110.6%
C MichiganCMU
vs
OHIOOhio
120.6%
BuffaloBUF
vs
CMUC Michigan
130.1%
BuffaloBUF
vs
M-OHMiami OH
14<0.1%
Ball StBALL
vs
OHIOOhio
15<0.1%
C MichiganCMU
vs
TOLToledo

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12Week 13

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Mid-American Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 73.3%
Game
ToledoCCG OddsAway
ToledoCCG OddsHome
Ball StBALL@ToledoTOL
0.2%
(-73.0%)		75.5%
(+2.3%)
Miami OHM-OH@BuffaloBUF
65.5%
(-7.8%)		82.3%
(+9.1%)
W MichiganWMU@N IllinoisNIU
67.9%
(-5.3%)		82.4%
(+9.2%)
AkronAKR@Bowling GreenBGSU
73.0%
(-0.2%)		73.3%
(+0.1%)
MassachusettsMASS@OhioOHIO
73.6%
(+0.3%)		73.3%
(+0.0%)
C MichiganCMU@KentKENT
72.6%
(-0.7%)		75.9%
(+2.6%)

Best Winner Combination for Toledo

Ball StBall StateMiami OHMiami (OH)N IllinoisNorthern IllinoisMassachusettsMassachusettsKentKent State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Toledo

ToledoToledoBuffaloBuffalo

CCG: 84.8% • Scenario: 44.6%

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team7-16-25-3Overall
ToledoTOL-88.9%0.4%73.3%
W MichiganWMU100%67.6%0.6%70.8%
Miami OHM-OH-57.3%1.2%29.6%
OhioOHIO-21.0%<0.1%15.0%
BuffaloBUF-45.0%-5.8%
C MichiganCMU-46.4%<0.1%5.5%
Ball StBALL--5.3%<0.1%
AkronAKR----
Bowling GreenBGSU----
E MichiganEMU----
KentKENT----
MassachusettsMASS----
N IllinoisNIU----

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team7-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
W MichiganWMU(5-1)39.0%46.9%14.1%-----6.2
ToledoTOL(4-2)-82.4%17.2%0.4%----5.8
OhioOHIO(4-2)-71.5%28.2%0.3%----5.7
Miami OHM-OH(4-2)-50.6%46.5%2.9%----5.5
C MichiganCMU(4-2)-11.9%70.5%17.5%----4.9
BuffaloBUF(4-2)-12.8%48.0%39.1%----4.7
E MichiganEMU(3-4)---38.3%61.7%---3.4
KentKENT(3-3)--2.7%28.3%69.0%---3.3
AkronAKR(3-4)---25.8%74.2%---3.3
N IllinoisNIU(2-4)---32.0%59.8%8.3%--3.2
Ball StBALL(3-3)--0.2%9.0%90.8%---3.1
Bowling GreenBGSU(1-5)----67.0%30.4%2.6%-2.6
MassachusettsMASS(0-6)-----<0.1%10.6%89.3%0.1

Data from 2025-11-16 • SportsSimulate.com