Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
73.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L23-28 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W45-10 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L7-28 | |
| 11 | 11/05 | W42-3 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | W24-3 | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 82.4% | 88.9% |
| 5-3 | 17.2% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (-73.0%) | 75.5% (+2.3%) | |
| 65.5% (-7.8%) | 82.3% (+9.1%) | |
| 67.9% (-5.3%) | 82.4% (+9.2%) | |
| 73.0% (-0.2%) | 73.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 73.6% (+0.3%) | 73.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 72.6% (-0.7%) | 75.9% (+2.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
Miami (OH)
Northern Illinois
Massachusetts
Kent StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Toledo
BuffaloCCG: 84.8% • Scenario: 44.6%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
88.9%
82.4%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16