Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L31-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L9-37 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W52-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W35-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | W48-21 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W28-21 | |
| 10 | 11/04 | W24-20 | |
| 11 | 11/11 | L13-17 | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 71.5% | 21.0% |
| 5-3 | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 52.4% (+37.4%) | 13.9% (-1.2%) | |
| 13.4% (-1.6%) | 16.9% (+1.9%) | |
| 6.0% (-9.0%) | 30.5% (+15.5%) | |
| 13.4% (-1.6%) | 15.6% (+0.6%) | |
| 0.3% (-14.7%) | 15.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 14.2% (-0.8%) | 18.1% (+3.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Ball State
Buffalo
Massachusetts
Kent StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Northern IllinoisOhioCCG: 30.8% • Scenario: 36.4%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
21.0%
71.5%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16