Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W63-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W30-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W41-35 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-19 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W24-21 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | L35-43 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | W34-26 | |
| 10 | 11/01 | W30-14 | |
| 11 | 11/08 | W49-0 | |
| 12 | 11/15 | W34-24 | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2025-11-16
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 91.2% | 10.5% |
| 6-2 | 8.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-11-16
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 9.5% (-0.0%) | 9.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.4%) | 9.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.6% (+0.0%) | 9.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.9% (-0.7%) | 9.9% (+0.4%) | |
| 9.6% (+0.0%) | 9.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.4%) | 9.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.4%) | 9.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.7% (+0.2%) | 9.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.6% (+0.1%) | 9.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.3% (-0.3%) | 9.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 10.2% • Scenario: 39.5%
Data from 2025-11-16
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
10.5%
91.2%Data from 2025-11-16
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-11-16