Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 2-0 | 63.0% | |
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 0-1 | 49.0% | |
| T1 |  Fresno StateFRES | 0-0 | 1-1 | 31.8% | |
| T1 |  San José StateSJSU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 20.5% | |
| T1 |  Air ForceAF | 0-0 | 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| T1 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 8.7% | |
| T1 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 1-0 | 6.0% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3.9% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 2.6% | |
| T1 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2.1% | |
| T1 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.9% | |
| T1 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 63.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 63.1% (+0.1%) | 62.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 63.9% (+0.8%) | 62.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 63.1% (+0.1%) | 62.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 62.5% (-0.5%) | 63.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 63.0% (+0.0%) | 63.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 62.6% (-0.4%) | 63.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 63.7% (+0.7%) | 62.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.4% (-0.6%) | 63.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 63.2% (+0.2%) | 63.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.8% (-0.2%) | 63.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 62.5% (-0.5%) | 63.1% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 95.7% | 51.0% | 2.7% | - | 63.0% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.1% | 66.9% | 7.9% | - | 49.0% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 94.3% | 43.8% | 2.2% | - | 31.8% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 86.6% | 30.2% | 0.8% | - | 20.5% |
| Air ForceAF | 100% | 98.7% | 60.3% | 4.8% | <0.1% | 11.4% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 99.7% | 62.9% | 4.8% | - | 8.7% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 95.9% | 49.0% | 2.5% | - | 6.0% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 98.3% | 58.4% | 4.0% | - | 3.9% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 95.4% | 39.9% | 1.3% | - | 2.6% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 99.6% | 62.6% | 5.6% | - | 2.1% |
| NevadaNEV | 100% | 98.7% | 75.4% | 10.1% | <0.1% | 0.9% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 100% | 57.8% | 8.2% | <0.1% | 0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | 14.2% | 33.9% | 31.4% | 15.4% | 4.4% | 0.8% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 6.4 |
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 5.8% | 20.5% | 31.2% | 25.4% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.7 |
| Fresno StateFRES(0-0) | 3.2% | 15.7% | 30.0% | 28.7% | 16.1% | 5.2% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| San José StateSJSU(0-0) | 2.4% | 11.9% | 25.1% | 29.2% | 20.2% | 8.7% | 2.1% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Air ForceAF(0-0) | 0.3% | 2.9% | 11.8% | 25.1% | 29.9% | 20.7% | 7.8% | 1.5% | <0.1% | 4.2 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.9% | 8.9% | 21.9% | 29.7% | 23.8% | 10.9% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 3.9 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.6% | 7.6% | 19.5% | 29.1% | 25.4% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 3.8 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 14.3% | 26.2% | 29.3% | 18.4% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 3.4 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 13.2% | 25.0% | 28.6% | 19.6% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 3.3 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 9.4% | 22.7% | 31.3% | 23.4% | 9.3% | 1.5% | 3.0 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.3% | 11.7% | 25.1% | 31.6% | 21.6% | 6.0% | 2.3 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 14.9% | 30.8% | 33.7% | 15.5% | 1.6 |
Data from 2025-09-02