Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:93% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:98% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:95% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:67% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:85% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:92% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:88% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.6% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 27.1% | 63.6% |
| 6-2 | 36.7% | 9.6% |
| 5-3 | 22.3% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 25.3% (-0.0%) | 25.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.3% (-0.1%) | 25.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 25.4% (+0.0%) | 25.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.4% (+0.0%) | 25.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 24.4% (-1.0%) | 25.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 25.9% (+0.5%) | 25.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 25.6% (+0.3%) | 25.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.3% (-0.0%) | 25.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.5% (+0.1%) | 25.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 25.0% (-0.3%) | 25.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 25.2% (-0.1%) | 25.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 24.8% (-0.5%) | 25.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 25.4% (+0.0%) | 25.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 24.3% (-1.0%) | 34.3% (+9.0%) | |
| 25.3% (-0.1%) | 25.4% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
4.0%Any 1 loss
64.6%
24.1%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
91.1%
0.4%
88.1%
1.3%
88.0%
0.6%
86.5%
1.2%
79.3%
0.5%
76.8%
2.0%
76.3%
0.7%
56.4%
17.0%Any 2 losses
14.7%
35.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.7%
0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.6%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%78.5%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%56.5%
1.3%53.3%
0.8%52.1%
0.3%34.0%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%24.8%
0.1%24.4%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.1%
0.4%22.9%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%21.3%
0.2%20.8%
0.3%20.5%
0.1%20.4%
0.2%20.1%
0.2%18.4%
0.4%15.9%
0.2%15.9%
0.6%15.0%
0.2%14.2%
0.1%14.0%
0.2%13.4%
0.6%12.6%
1.6%11.1%
3.1%10.2%
1.9%9.5%
5.0%6.9%
2.4%6.9%
8.4%5.5%
5.0%Any 3 losses
11.0%
4.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.8%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.4%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.5%
0.3%9.1%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.4%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.4%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
0.3%6.9%
0.4%6.6%
0.6%6.5%
0.2%6.3%
<0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.7%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02