Hawai'iRainbow Warriors

1-1 T1st (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsStanfordSTAN	W23-20
1	8/30	@ArizonaARIZ	L6-40
2	9/06	vsSam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:28%
3	9/13	vsPortland StatePRST	Win prob:90%
4	9/20	vsFresno StateFRES	Win prob:16%
5	9/27	@Air ForceAF	Win prob:14%
7	10/11	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:26%
8	10/18	@Colorado StateCSU	Win prob:20%
10	11/01	@San José StateSJSU	Win prob:12%
11	11/08	vsSan Diego StateSDSU	Win prob:38%
13	11/21	@UNLVUNLV	Win prob:5%
14	11/29	vsWyomingWYO	Win prob:30%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0%	0%
7-1	0%	100.0%
6-2	0.1%	57.8%
5-3	0.7%	8.2%
4-4	4.3%	0.0%
3-5	14.9%	0%
2-6	30.8%	0%
1-7	33.7%	0%
0-8	15.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

66.7%

11.1%

11.1%

11.1%

0.0%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Fresno StateFRES@Oregon StateORST	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Northern IowaUNI@WyomingWYO	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Sam HoustonSHSU@Hawai'iHAW	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (-0.0%)
San José StateSJSU@TexasTEX	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Utah StateUSU@Texas A&MTA&M	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (-0.0%)
Northern ColoradoUNCO@Colorado StateCSU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Idaho StateIDST@New MexicoUNM	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Eastern WashingtonEWU@Boise StateBOIS	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
San Diego StateSDSU@Washington StateWSU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@UNLVUNLV	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Sacramento StateSAC@NevadaNEV	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

Any 3 losses

36.7%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

28.6%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.7%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com