UNLV

UNLVRebels

2-0 T1st (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

63.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

UNLVSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
08/23
vsIdaho StateIDST
W38-31
18/29
vsSam Houston StSHSU(N)
W38-21
29/06
vsUCLAUCLA
Win prob:84%
49/20
@Miami OHM-OH
Win prob:62%
610/04
@WyomingWYO
Win prob:76%
710/11
vsAir ForceAF
Win prob:81%
810/18
@Boise StBOIS
Win prob:50%
1011/01
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:89%
1111/08
@Colorado StCSU
Win prob:78%
1211/15
vsUtah StUSU
Win prob:83%
1311/21
vsHawaiiHAW
Win prob:95%
1411/29
@NevadaNEV
Win prob:84%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

UNLVRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
14.2%
100.0%
7-1
33.9%
95.7%
6-2
31.4%
51.0%
5-3
15.4%
2.7%
4-4
4.4%
0%
3-5
0.8%
0%
2-6
0.1%
0%
1-7
0.0%
0%
0-8
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely UNLV CCG Opponents

if UNLV makes the CCG

Boise StateBoise St
43.4%
Fresno StateFresno St
25.2%
San José StateSan Jose St
16.4%
Air ForceAir Force
8.6%
Utah StateUtah St
6.5%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

UNLVThis Week's Impact

Game
UNLVCCG OddsAway
UNLVCCG OddsHome
Fresno StFRES@Oregon StORST
63.1%
(+0.1%)		62.8%
(-0.2%)
Northern IowaUNI@WyomingWYO
63.9%
(+0.8%)		62.9%
(-0.1%)
Sam Houston StSHSU@HawaiiHAW
63.1%
(+0.1%)		62.7%
(-0.3%)
San Jose StSJSU@TexasTEX
62.5%
(-0.5%)		63.1%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@Texas A&MTA&M
63.0%
(+0.0%)		63.0%
(+0.0%)
Northern ColoradoUNCO@Colorado StCSU
62.6%
(-0.4%)		63.1%
(+0.1%)
Idaho StateIDST@New MexicoUNM
63.7%
(+0.7%)		62.9%
(-0.1%)
Eastern WashingtonEWU@Boise StBOIS
62.4%
(-0.6%)		63.1%
(+0.1%)
San Diego StSDSU@Washington StWSU
63.2%
(+0.2%)		63.0%
(-0.1%)
UCLAUCLA@UNLVUNLV
62.8%
(-0.2%)		63.1%
(+0.0%)
Sacramento StateSAC@NevadaNEV
62.5%
(-0.5%)		63.1%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

UNLVLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UNLV CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
7.4%
Any 1 loss
96.8%
23.7%
Miami OH
100.0%
4.5%
UCLA
100.0%
1.4%
Hawaii
99.7%
0.4%
New Mexico
98.0%
0.9%
Nevada
98.0%
1.4%
Colorado St
97.6%
2.1%
Utah St
97.5%
1.5%
Wyoming
97.1%
2.3%
Air Force
95.5%
1.7%
Boise St
93.7%
7.4%
Any 2 losses
72.7%
31.2%
Miami OHUCLA
100.0%
0.9%
HawaiiUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNew Mexico
99.3%
0.5%
NevadaUCLA
98.4%
0.3%
HawaiiMiami OH
98.0%
0.3%
Colorado StMiami OH
98.0%
1.3%
Colorado StUCLA
97.5%
0.4%
Miami OHNevada
97.5%
0.8%
Miami OHWyoming
97.4%
1.4%
Air ForceMiami OH
97.4%
1.1%
New MexicoUCLA
96.7%
0.2%
UCLAUtah St
96.4%
0.3%
Air ForceUCLA
96.3%
0.3%
UCLAWyoming
96.3%
0.4%
Miami OHUtah St
95.8%
0.9%
Boise StUCLA
93.3%
1.4%
Boise StMiami OH
93.3%
4.5%
Colorado StHawaii
80.4%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevada
72.7%
<0.1%
NevadaNew Mexico
71.4%
0.2%
HawaiiNew Mexico
69.6%
<0.1%
HawaiiUtah St
68.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StNevada
67.7%
0.4%
HawaiiWyoming
67.7%
0.1%
Colorado StNew Mexico
67.7%
0.3%
NevadaUtah St
64.5%
0.3%
NevadaWyoming
63.7%
0.4%
New MexicoWyoming
63.0%
0.3%
Colorado StWyoming
62.8%
0.7%
New MexicoUtah St
61.9%
0.2%
Air ForceColorado St
61.0%
0.5%
Air ForceNevada
59.9%
0.3%
Air ForceNew Mexico
59.1%
0.2%
Colorado StUtah St
57.6%
0.4%
Air ForceHawaii
56.8%
<0.1%
Utah StWyoming
55.1%
0.5%
Air ForceWyoming
54.0%
0.5%
Boise StNevada
53.9%
1.4%
Boise StNew Mexico
51.7%
0.9%
Air ForceUtah St
50.6%
0.3%
Boise StHawaii
50.2%
0.4%
Boise StColorado St
47.1%
2.1%
Boise StWyoming
45.2%
2.3%
Air ForceBoise St
39.5%
1.7%
Boise StUtah St
38.2%
1.5%
Any 3 losses
38.4%
23.1%
Miami OHUCLAUtah St
98.4%
0.2%
Miami OHUCLAWyoming
97.8%
0.3%
Air ForceMiami OHUCLA
97.5%
0.2%
Colorado StMiami OHUCLA
96.4%
0.3%
HawaiiMiami OHUCLA
96.4%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaUCLA
95.7%
0.2%
Miami OHNew MexicoUCLA
95.3%
0.1%
Boise StMiami OHUCLA
92.1%
0.8%
Colorado StHawaiiUCLA
82.8%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoUCLA
80.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHNevada
75.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoUCLA
75.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUCLA
72.7%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaNew Mexico
72.2%
0.1%
Colorado StNew MexicoUCLA
70.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHUtah St
69.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUCLAWyoming
66.9%
0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNew Mexico
66.9%
0.2%
NevadaUCLAWyoming
65.9%
<0.1%
New MexicoUCLAWyoming
65.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNevada
65.5%
0.2%
Air ForceMiami OHNevada
64.7%
0.2%
HawaiiMiami OHWyoming
64.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StNevadaUCLA
62.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHUtah St
61.9%
0.3%
UCLAUtah StWyoming
61.8%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUCLA
61.5%
<0.1%
Miami OHNew MexicoWyoming
61.2%
0.2%
Boise StHawaiiUCLA
60.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StUCLA
60.8%
0.1%
New MexicoUCLAUtah St
60.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUCLA
60.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHWyoming
60.2%
0.4%
Miami OHNew MexicoUtah St
60.2%
0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoUCLA
60.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHawaiiMiami OH
60.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiMiami OH
60.0%
<0.1%
NevadaUCLAUtah St
59.7%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaWyoming
59.0%
0.3%
Miami OHNevadaUtah St
58.0%
0.2%
Air ForceColorado StMiami OH
57.8%
0.3%
Air ForceMiami OHWyoming
57.1%
0.3%
HawaiiUCLAUtah St
54.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHNew Mexico
54.0%
0.1%
Colorado StUCLAUtah St
52.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHUtah StWyoming
51.8%
0.3%
Boise StMiami OHNew Mexico
51.0%
0.6%
Air ForceMiami OHUtah St
50.6%
0.2%
Boise StHawaiiMiami OH
50.2%
0.2%
Boise StNevadaUCLA
50.2%
0.3%
Air ForceUCLAWyoming
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHNevada
49.4%
0.8%
Boise StNew MexicoUCLA
47.2%
0.2%
Boise StColorado StUCLA
47.0%
0.4%
Boise StColorado StMiami OH
46.6%
1.3%
Air ForceUCLAUtah St
46.1%
<0.1%
Boise StUCLAWyoming
45.4%
0.4%
HawaiiUCLAWyoming
43.8%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHWyoming
43.6%
1.5%
HawaiiMiami OHNew Mexico
43.5%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHUtah St
41.4%
0.9%
Air ForceBoise StUCLA
38.9%
0.4%
Air ForceBoise StMiami OH
38.8%
1.0%
Boise StUCLAUtah St
33.8%
0.3%
Colorado StHawaiiNew Mexico
11.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StHawaiiNevada
10.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiUtah StWyoming
8.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaWyoming
8.7%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiUtah St
8.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StNevada
8.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNew MexicoUtah St
6.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiWyoming
6.1%
<0.1%
NevadaNew MexicoWyoming
5.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiNew MexicoWyoming
5.6%
<0.1%
Boise StNevadaNew Mexico
5.4%
0.2%
NevadaNew MexicoUtah St
5.1%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHawaii
4.9%
0.1%
Air ForceColorado StHawaii
4.8%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiWyoming
4.7%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StNevada
4.5%
0.4%
Colorado StUtah StWyoming
4.3%
0.1%
Air ForceNevadaWyoming
4.2%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiNew Mexico
3.9%
<0.1%
Boise StNevadaWyoming
3.9%
0.4%
Air ForceColorado StWyoming
3.9%
0.1%
Colorado StNevadaWyoming
3.7%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StWyoming
3.3%
0.6%
Air ForceBoise StHawaii
3.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StNevada
3.2%
0.3%
New MexicoUtah StWyoming
2.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUtah St
2.9%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaNew Mexico
2.8%
<0.1%
Boise StNew MexicoWyoming
2.7%
0.3%
Boise StNevadaUtah St
2.6%
0.3%
Boise StUtah StWyoming
2.2%
0.5%
Boise StNew MexicoUtah St
2.1%
0.2%
Colorado StNevadaNew Mexico
2.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiUtah St
2.0%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StUtah St
2.0%
0.4%
Air ForceBoise StWyoming
1.9%
0.5%
Air ForceBoise StUtah St
1.8%
0.4%
Air ForceBoise StColorado St
1.6%
0.5%
Air ForceBoise StNew Mexico
1.4%
0.2%
Colorado StNevadaUtah St
1.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceNew MexicoWyoming
1.4%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiNevada
1.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StNew MexicoWyoming
1.2%
<0.1%
NevadaUtah StWyoming
1.1%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StNew Mexico
1.1%
0.3%
Air ForceColorado StUtah St
0.9%
0.1%
Air ForceUtah StWyoming
0.8%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
15.5%
7.1%
HawaiiMiami OHNevadaUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHawaiiMiami OHUCLA
81.8%
<0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHNew MexicoUCLA
80.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaNew MexicoUCLA
76.9%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaUCLAUtah St
71.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHUCLAWyoming
65.1%
<0.1%
Miami OHNew MexicoUCLAWyoming
64.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNevadaUCLA
64.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNew MexicoUCLA
61.5%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaUCLAWyoming
61.4%
<0.1%
Miami OHUCLAUtah StWyoming
61.3%
<0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHUCLAWyoming
60.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHNew MexicoUCLAUtah St
59.1%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHNevadaUCLA
56.9%
0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHNew MexicoUCLA
56.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiMiami OHUCLA
55.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StMiami OHUCLA
54.9%
<0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHUCLAUtah St
53.8%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StMiami OHUCLA
53.3%
0.2%
Colorado StMiami OHUCLAUtah St
52.9%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHNew MexicoUCLA
49.1%
0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHUCLAWyoming
46.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHNevadaUCLA
46.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHUCLAUtah St
42.1%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHUCLAWyoming
42.0%
0.3%
Boise StHawaiiMiami OHUCLA
41.2%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StMiami OHUCLA
40.8%
0.2%
Boise StMiami OHUCLAUtah St
40.1%
0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHNevadaNew Mexico
33.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceHawaiiMiami OHNevada
30.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiNevadaUCLAWyoming
20.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHawaiiMiami OHNevada
15.4%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiNevadaUCLA
13.3%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiMiami OHNew Mexico
11.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHNevadaWyoming
11.1%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHawaiiUCLA
11.1%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHawaiiMiami OH
10.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StNevadaUCLAWyoming
10.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNevadaWyoming
10.0%
<0.1%
NevadaUCLAUtah StWyoming
10.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaNew MexicoUCLA
9.1%
<0.1%
HawaiiMiami OHUtah StWyoming
8.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StNew MexicoUCLAUtah St
8.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaNew MexicoUtah St
7.1%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiMiami OHUtah St
6.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StMiami OHNevada
6.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNew MexicoUtah St
6.5%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StNevadaUCLA
6.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNevadaUtah St
6.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StHawaiiMiami OH
5.9%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaNew MexicoWyoming
5.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHNevadaUtah St
5.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNevadaUCLAUtah St
5.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNew MexicoUCLAWyoming
4.8%
<0.1%
Air ForceNevadaUCLAWyoming
4.8%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiUCLAWyoming
4.8%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StMiami OHNevada
4.4%
0.3%
Air ForceHawaiiMiami OHWyoming
4.3%
<0.1%
Boise StNevadaUCLAWyoming
4.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHawaiiMiami OHWyoming
4.0%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StUCLAWyoming
3.6%
0.1%
Air ForceBoise StHawaiiMiami OH
3.6%
<0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHNevadaWyoming
3.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StMiami OHNevada
3.2%
0.2%
Boise StColorado StMiami OHWyoming
3.1%
0.4%
Boise StHawaiiMiami OHWyoming
3.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceMiami OHNevadaNew Mexico
3.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StColorado StUCLA
3.0%
0.1%
Boise StMiami OHNevadaNew Mexico
3.0%
0.1%
Air ForceBoise StNew MexicoUCLA
2.9%
<0.1%
Boise StHawaiiMiami OHNevada
2.9%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StMiami OHUtah St
2.8%
0.3%
Air ForceBoise StNevadaUCLA
2.7%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHNevadaWyoming
2.7%
0.3%
Boise StColorado StUCLAWyoming
2.5%
0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHUtah StWyoming
2.4%
<0.1%
Air ForceColorado StMiami OHWyoming
2.3%
<0.1%
Boise StNevadaNew MexicoUCLA
2.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StColorado StMiami OH
2.2%
0.3%
Miami OHNew MexicoUtah StWyoming
2.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StMiami OHNew MexicoWyoming
2.1%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StNew MexicoUCLA
1.9%
<0.1%
Miami OHNevadaUtah StWyoming
1.8%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHNew MexicoWyoming
1.8%
0.2%
Boise StMiami OHNevadaUtah St
1.7%
0.2%
Air ForceColorado StMiami OHUtah St
1.3%
<0.1%
Boise StMiami OHUtah StWyoming
1.3%
0.3%
Air ForceBoise StUCLAUtah St
1.3%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StMiami OHWyoming
1.2%
0.3%
Boise StColorado StUCLAUtah St
1.2%
<0.1%
Boise StUCLAUtah StWyoming
1.1%
<0.1%
Air ForceBoise StMiami OHUtah St
0.9%
0.2%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

UNLVCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com