Mid-American Conference

Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21

Mid-American ConferenceConference Standings

T1BuffaloBUF1-02-221.9%
T1W MichiganWMU1-01-35.1%
T3OhioOHIO0-02-271.6%
T3Bowling GreenBGSU0-02-234.4%
T3N IllinoisNIU0-01-225.6%
T3ToledoTOL0-12-220.8%
T3Miami OHM-OH0-00-318.8%
T3E MichiganEMU0-01-31.1%
T3C MichiganCMU0-02-20.3%
T3MassachusettsMASS0-00-30.1%
T3AkronAKR0-01-3<0.1%
T3Ball StBALL0-01-3<0.1%
T3KentKENT0-11-3-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Mid-American Conference CCG Matchups

120.2%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
OHIOOhio
213.8%
N IllinoisNIU
vs
OHIOOhio
312.2%
OhioOHIO
vs
TOLToledo
411.1%
BuffaloBUF
vs
OHIOOhio
510.9%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
OHIOOhio
64.6%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
NIUN Illinois
73.4%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
BUFBuffalo
82.9%
BuffaloBUF
vs
NIUN Illinois
92.7%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
M-OHMiami OH
102.5%
OhioOHIO
vs
WMUW Michigan
112.5%
Bowling GreenBGSU
vs
TOLToledo
122.1%
BuffaloBUF
vs
TOLToledo
131.9%
N IllinoisNIU
vs
TOLToledo
141.8%
Miami OHM-OH
vs
NIUN Illinois
151.6%
BuffaloBUF
vs
M-OHMiami OH

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Mid-American Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 71.6%
Game
OhioCCG OddsAway
OhioCCG OddsHome
Rhode IslandURI@W MichiganWMU
72.3%
(+0.7%)		71.6%
(-0.1%)
E MichiganEMU@C MichiganCMU
71.9%
(+0.2%)		71.3%
(-0.4%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@OhioOHIO
46.0%
(-25.6%)		80.5%
(+8.8%)
San Diego StSDSU@N IllinoisNIU
71.5%
(-0.1%)		71.7%
(+0.0%)
LindenwoodLIN@Miami OHM-OH
71.4%
(-0.2%)		71.7%
(+0.0%)
UConnCONN@BuffaloBUF
71.8%
(+0.2%)		71.5%
(-0.2%)
MassachusettsMASS@MissouriMIZ
70.5%
(-1.1%)		71.7%
(+0.0%)
AkronAKR@ToledoTOL
72.6%
(+1.0%)		71.6%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Ohio

Rhode IslandRhode IslandC MichiganCentral MichiganLindenwoodLindenwoodMassachusettsMassachusetts

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Ohio

OhioOhio

CCG: 80.5% • Scenario: 74.4%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
OhioOHIO100%99.4%54.1%1.4%71.6%
Bowling GreenBGSU100%90.3%24.4%0.3%34.4%
N IllinoisNIU100%89.7%24.8%0.3%25.6%
BuffaloBUF100%87.8%19.7%0.1%21.9%
ToledoTOL-92.9%24.9%0.1%20.8%
Miami OHM-OH100%97.5%44.9%1.0%18.8%
W MichiganWMU100%93.0%29.4%0.3%5.1%
E MichiganEMU100%97.9%53.2%1.4%1.1%
C MichiganCMU100%76.8%21.0%0.1%0.3%
MassachusettsMASS100%100%34.8%0.7%0.1%
AkronAKR-88.9%16.4%0.1%<0.1%
Ball StBALL100%100%30.2%0.5%<0.1%
KentKENT--16.7%--

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Mid-American ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
OhioOHIO(0-0)19.6%36.6%28.5%11.8%2.9%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%6.6
Bowling GreenBGSU(0-0)4.5%23.2%36.3%25.3%8.9%1.7%0.2%<0.1%0.0%5.8
N IllinoisNIU(0-0)2.5%16.2%34.3%30.4%13.3%3.0%0.3%<0.1%0.0%5.5
BuffaloBUF(1-0)2.5%14.8%32.4%31.6%14.7%3.5%0.4%<0.1%-5.5
ToledoTOL(0-1)-12.9%35.2%34.6%14.6%2.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%5.4
Miami OHM-OH(0-0)0.9%7.6%22.7%32.7%24.5%9.6%1.8%0.2%<0.1%4.9
W MichiganWMU(1-0)0.1%1.9%10.8%28.4%34.0%19.3%5.0%0.5%-4.3
E MichiganEMU(0-0)<0.1%0.2%1.6%7.5%19.9%30.7%26.5%11.6%1.9%2.8
C MichiganCMU(0-0)<0.1%<0.1%1.1%6.2%18.9%30.9%27.9%12.7%2.3%2.7
AkronAKR(0-0)0.0%<0.1%0.4%3.9%16.3%32.1%31.1%13.9%2.3%2.6
Ball StBALL(0-0)0.0%0.0%0.1%1.4%8.3%26.4%37.5%22.1%4.2%2.2
MassachusettsMASS(0-0)0.0%<0.1%0.3%2.1%9.3%24.3%33.6%23.9%6.6%2.1
KentKENT(0-1)-0.0%<0.1%0.3%2.7%13.7%32.0%35.8%15.5%1.5

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com