ToledoRockets

2-2 T3rd (0-1) in MAC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

20.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	@KentuckyUK	L16-24
2	9/06	vsWestern KentuckyWKU	W45-21
3	9/13	vsMorgan StateMORG	W60-0
4	9/20	@Western MichiganWMU	L13-14
5	9/27	vsAkronAKR	Win prob:95%
7	10/11	@Bowling GreenBGSU	Win prob:49%
8	10/18	vsKent StateKENT	Win prob:97%
9	10/25	@Washington StateWSU	Win prob:60%
11	11/05	vsNorthern IllinoisNIU	Win prob:64%
12	11/12	@Miami (OH)M-OH	Win prob:53%
13	11/22	vsBall StateBALL	Win prob:94%
14	11/29	@Central MichiganCMU	Win prob:88%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	12.9%	92.9%
6-2	35.2%	24.9%
5-3	34.6%	0.1%
4-4	14.6%	0%
3-5	2.6%	0%
2-6	0.2%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

60.4%

12.5%

10.6%

9.7%

6.8%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Rhode IslandURI@Western MichiganWMU	20.4% (-0.4%)	20.8% (+0.0%)
Eastern MichiganEMU@Central MichiganCMU	20.3% (-0.4%)	21.5% (+0.7%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@OhioOHIO	22.2% (+1.4%)	20.3% (-0.5%)
San Diego StateSDSU@Northern IllinoisNIU	20.6% (-0.2%)	20.8% (+0.1%)
LindenwoodLIN@Miami (OH)M-OH	21.1% (+0.3%)	20.8% (-0.0%)
UConnCONN@BuffaloBUF	20.7% (-0.1%)	20.9% (+0.1%)
MassachusettsMASS@MissouriMIZ	19.9% (-0.9%)	20.8% (+0.0%)
AkronAKR@ToledoTOL	7.5% (-13.3%)	21.6% (+0.8%)

Best Winner Combination for

Western Michigan

Bowling Green

Lindenwood

Massachusetts

Akron

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Missouri

Toledo

CCG: 21.6% • Scenario: 93.3%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

92.8%

7.7%

Any 1 loss

38.4%

26.2%

93.0%

5.2%

57.0%

0.3%

56.5%

0.4%

54.1%

0.5%

53.4%

1.0%

24.1%

6.6%

23.5%

4.1%

18.2%

8.1%

Any 2 losses

25.0%

14.3%

56.0%

0.1%

53.3%

0.7%

52.8%

0.3%

51.9%

0.3%

25.5%

4.5%

23.0%

2.8%

18.5%

5.5%

5.6%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com