Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:49% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:78% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:83% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 14.8% | 87.8% |
| 6-2 | 32.4% | 19.7% |
| 5-3 | 31.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 14.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.2% (+0.3%) | 21.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 21.7% (-0.2%) | 22.2% (+0.3%) | |
| 21.6% (-0.3%) | 22.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 21.8% (-0.1%) | 21.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.7% (-0.1%) | 21.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.0% (+0.1%) | 21.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.8% (+0.9%) | 21.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 26.7% (+4.8%) | 21.6% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rhode Island
Eastern Michigan
Miami (OH)
Massachusetts
AkronCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Miami (OH)AkronCCG: 27.3% • Scenario: 4.9%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.2%Any 1 loss
89.1%
8.6%
100.0%
1.3%
96.5%
0.3%95.9%
0.1%95.9%
0.3%92.9%
0.3%86.8%
1.1%
86.2%
2.8%
85.3%
2.4%Any 2 losses
41.4%
23.4%97.5%
0.3%94.7%
0.1%93.3%
0.4%93.1%
0.2%88.7%
1.1%87.4%
2.8%86.4%
2.5%58.9%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.3%
0.3%35.9%
0.1%35.5%
0.3%33.2%
0.7%32.6%
0.2%31.3%
0.7%30.2%
0.5%30.1%
0.5%28.8%
0.8%27.7%
0.7%26.7%
0.3%26.5%
0.3%17.5%
2.2%11.3%
5.6%10.8%
2.5%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21