MissouriTigers

4-0 T1st (1-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

7.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsCentral ArkansasCARK	W61-6
2	9/06	vsKansasKU	W42-31
3	9/13	vsLouisianaUL	W52-10
4	9/20	vsSouth CarolinaSC	W29-20
5	9/27	vsMassachusettsMASS	Win prob:99%
7	10/11	vsAlabamaALA	Win prob:31%
8	10/18	@AuburnAUB	Win prob:52%
9	10/25	@VanderbiltVAN	Win prob:57%
11	11/08	vsTexas A&MTA&M	Win prob:59%
12	11/15	vsMississippi StateMSST	Win prob:89%
13	11/22	@OklahomaOU	Win prob:44%
14	11/29	@ArkansasARK	Win prob:53%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.2%	99.9%
7-1	7.6%	58.1%
6-2	21.2%	6.5%
5-3	31.0%	0.0%
4-4	24.9%	0%
3-5	11.5%	0%
2-6	2.4%	0%
1-7	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

57.8%

18.4%

13.5%

9.1%

1.2%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Utah StateUSU@VanderbiltVAN	6.8% (-0.2%)	7.1% (+0.1%)
Notre DameND@ArkansasARK	7.0% (+0.0%)	7.0% (+0.0%)
AlabamaALA@GeorgiaUGA	8.0% (+0.9%)	6.6% (-0.4%)
MassachusettsMASS@MissouriMIZ	8.2% (+1.2%)	7.0% (-0.0%)
KentuckyUK@South CarolinaSC	6.6% (-0.4%)	7.2% (+0.2%)
LSULSU@Ole MissMISS	8.1% (+1.1%)	6.7% (-0.3%)
AuburnAUB@Texas A&MTA&M	7.3% (+0.3%)	6.8% (-0.2%)
TennesseeTENN@Mississippi StateMSST	6.9% (-0.1%)	7.4% (+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for

Utah State

Arkansas

Alabama

Massachusetts

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Alabama

CCG: 8.0% • Scenario: 29.6%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.9%

1.2%

Any 1 loss

58.2%

7.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

69.9%

1.0%

63.9%

0.8%

63.5%

0.8%

55.5%

1.4%

54.3%

1.0%

53.7%

0.1%

52.5%

2.4%

Any 2 losses

6.8%

21.0%

81.8%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

64.0%

<0.1%

60.6%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

15.9%

0.1%

13.6%

0.7%

13.3%

0.8%

12.9%

0.6%

11.3%

0.9%

10.7%

0.1%

9.8%

0.7%

7.6%

0.1%

7.5%

2.3%

7.5%

1.2%

7.5%

0.7%

7.4%

1.3%

6.7%

1.1%

5.8%

1.0%

5.3%

1.9%

5.1%

0.1%

4.6%

0.3%

4.6%

0.2%

4.4%

1.6%

3.6%

2.0%

2.1%

3.2%

Any 3 losses

7.3%

0.2%

50.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.0%

<0.1%

7.4%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

2.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com