OhioBobcats

2-2 T3rd (0-0) in MAC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

71.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	@RutgersRUTG	L31-34
2	9/06	vsWest VirginiaWVU	W17-10
3	9/13	@Ohio StateOSU	L9-37
4	9/20	vsGardner-WebbGWEB	W52-35
5	9/27	vsBowling GreenBGSU	Win prob:74%
6	10/04	@Ball StateBALL	Win prob:93%
8	10/18	vsNorthern IllinoisNIU	Win prob:75%
9	10/25	@Eastern MichiganEMU	Win prob:86%
10	11/04	vsMiami (OH)M-OH	Win prob:78%
11	11/11	@Western MichiganWMU	Win prob:84%
12	11/18	vsMassachusettsMASS	Win prob:97%
14	11/28	@BuffaloBUF	Win prob:70%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	19.6%	100.0%
7-1	36.6%	99.4%
6-2	28.5%	54.1%
5-3	11.8%	1.4%
4-4	2.9%	0%
3-5	0.4%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

29.6%

20.2%

17.9%

16.3%

16.0%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Rhode IslandURI@Western MichiganWMU	72.3% (+0.7%)	71.6% (-0.1%)
Eastern MichiganEMU@Central MichiganCMU	71.9% (+0.2%)	71.3% (-0.4%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@OhioOHIO	46.0% (-25.6%)	80.5% (+8.8%)
San Diego StateSDSU@Northern IllinoisNIU	71.5% (-0.1%)	71.7% (+0.0%)
LindenwoodLIN@Miami (OH)M-OH	71.4% (-0.2%)	71.7% (+0.0%)
UConnCONN@BuffaloBUF	71.8% (+0.2%)	71.5% (-0.2%)
MassachusettsMASS@MissouriMIZ	70.5% (-1.1%)	71.7% (+0.0%)
AkronAKR@ToledoTOL	72.6% (+1.0%)	71.6% (-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Rhode Island

Central Michigan

Lindenwood

Massachusetts

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Ohio

CCG: 80.5% • Scenario: 74.4%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

19.6%

Any 1 loss

99.4%

36.6%

100.0%

3.1%

100.0%

0.7%

99.9%

3.7%

99.9%

1.4%

99.8%

8.6%

99.8%

6.7%

98.6%

6.9%

98.5%

5.5%

Any 2 losses

54.2%

28.5%

91.5%

<0.1%

90.5%

0.1%

87.0%

0.2%

84.0%

0.3%

76.3%

0.2%

74.2%

0.7%

72.8%

0.6%

70.4%

0.1%

68.2%

0.2%

68.0%

0.3%

66.7%

0.5%

65.2%

1.7%

65.1%

0.5%

65.1%

0.4%

64.8%

0.2%

60.8%

1.0%

60.3%

1.4%

59.7%

1.1%

59.3%

0.9%

57.8%

1.3%

57.5%

1.3%

55.2%

1.0%

48.9%

2.9%

47.9%

2.9%

47.8%

2.4%

42.7%

1.9%

41.7%

1.9%

36.3%

2.3%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com