UNLVRebels

4-0 T4th (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

63.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsIdaho StateIDST	W38-31
1	8/29	vsSam HoustonSHSU(N)	W38-21
2	9/06	vsUCLAUCLA	W30-23
4	9/20	@Miami (OH)M-OH	W41-38
6	10/04	@WyomingWYO	Win prob:80%
7	10/11	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:85%
8	10/18	@Boise StateBOIS	Win prob:47%
10	11/01	vsNew MexicoUNM	Win prob:83%
11	11/08	@Colorado StateCSU	Win prob:78%
12	11/15	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:80%
13	11/21	vsHawai'iHAW	Win prob:94%
14	11/29	@NevadaNEV	Win prob:85%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	13.1%	100.0%
7-1	33.1%	96.6%
6-2	32.1%	55.1%
5-3	15.9%	4.4%
4-4	4.9%	0.0%
3-5	0.9%	0%
2-6	0.1%	0%
1-7	0%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

60.0%

15.9%

10.9%

8.9%

4.4%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Utah StateUSU@VanderbiltVAN	63.7% (+0.3%)	63.3% (-0.1%)
Washington StateWSU@Colorado StateCSU	63.6% (+0.2%)	63.3% (-0.1%)
San Diego StateSDSU@Northern IllinoisNIU	63.0% (-0.5%)	63.5% (+0.1%)
Hawai'iHAW@Air ForceAF	63.3% (-0.1%)	63.5% (+0.0%)
San José StateSJSU@StanfordSTAN	63.4% (+0.0%)	63.4% (+0.0%)
New Mexico StateNMSU@New MexicoUNM	63.2% (-0.2%)	63.5% (+0.0%)
App StateAPP@Boise StateBOIS	63.2% (-0.3%)	63.5% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Utah State

Washington State

San Diego State

Air Force

Stanford

New Mexico State

App State

CCG: 84.6% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Washington State

Air Force

New Mexico

Boise State

CCG: 64.1% • Scenario: 24.4%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

13.1%

Any 1 loss

96.6%

33.1%

98.9%

3.4%

98.6%

2.4%

98.5%

2.3%

98.2%

0.9%

98.2%

2.6%

98.2%

3.6%

97.4%

3.3%

94.5%

14.6%

Any 2 losses

55.1%

32.1%

80.9%

0.1%

76.1%

0.4%

74.7%

0.7%

74.5%

0.2%

72.7%

0.6%

72.5%

0.1%

71.5%

0.6%

71.1%

0.6%

70.8%

0.2%

70.7%

0.2%

67.0%

0.5%

66.1%

1.0%

65.7%

0.5%

63.4%

0.6%

63.2%

0.7%

62.1%

0.7%

61.4%

0.3%

59.4%

1.0%

58.9%

0.6%

58.2%

2.7%

58.1%

0.9%

56.0%

0.8%

55.7%

2.6%

52.6%

3.8%

52.1%

4.2%

47.7%

0.6%

46.3%

3.0%

34.5%

3.7%

Any 3 losses

4.5%

15.6%

23.1%

<0.1%

16.1%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

11.7%

0.1%

10.8%

0.2%

10.3%

<0.1%

9.7%

<0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

9.4%

0.3%

9.3%

0.1%

8.7%

0.1%

8.3%

0.2%

7.7%

0.2%

7.5%

<0.1%

7.2%

0.2%

7.1%

<0.1%

7.0%

0.7%

6.7%

0.2%

6.2%

0.3%

6.0%

0.7%

5.8%

0.5%

5.7%

0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.4%

0.8%

5.1%

<0.1%

5.1%

<0.1%

5.1%

<0.1%

4.9%

0.1%

4.9%

0.2%

4.8%

1.1%

4.7%

0.6%

4.7%

0.5%

4.4%

<0.1%

4.2%

0.1%

4.1%

0.1%

3.8%

0.2%

3.8%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.1%

3.7%

0.3%

3.5%

0.6%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.4%

0.7%

3.1%

0.2%

3.1%

0.1%

2.9%

0.9%

2.8%

0.8%

2.7%

0.8%

2.6%

0.1%

2.1%

0.1%

2.1%

0.2%

1.8%

1.0%

1.8%

0.1%

1.8%

0.7%

1.2%

0.7%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com