Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L11-46 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W20-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L16-31 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:21% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:57% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:26% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:22% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:37% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.6% | 72.4% |
| 5-3 | 3.5% | 12.0% |
| 4-4 | 11.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 31.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 5.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.1%) | 0.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.1%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (+0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.0%) | 0.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Washington State
San Diego State
Air Force
Stanford
New Mexico State
App StateCCG: 7.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
San Diego StateAir ForceCCG: 1.1% • Scenario: 17.0%
Data from 2025-09-21
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21