Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-21
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 1-0 | 2-1 | 65.7% | |
| T1 |  Fresno StateFRES | 1-0 | 4-1 | 24.1% | |
| T1 |  Utah StateUSU | 1-0 | 3-1 | 16.1% | |
| T4 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 4-0 | 63.4% | |
| T4 |  San José StateSJSU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 13.3% | |
| T4 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 2-1 | 7.3% | |
| T4 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3.8% | |
| T4 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3.2% | |
| T4 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 1.4% | |
| T4 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 1-3 | 0.9% | |
| T4 |  Air ForceAF | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0.8% | |
| T4 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-1 | 3-2 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-21
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-21
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 65.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 65.2% (-0.5%) | 65.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 65.5% (-0.1%) | 65.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 65.5% (-0.1%) | 65.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 64.0% (-1.7%) | 66.1% (+0.5%) | |
| 65.8% (+0.1%) | 65.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 65.9% (+0.3%) | 65.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 65.8% (+0.2%) | 65.6% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Washington State
Northern IllinoisHawai'iSan José State
New Mexico State
App StateCCG: 88.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Air ForceCCG: 66.1% • Scenario: 78.2%
Data from 2025-09-21
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.4% | 67.5% | 9.2% | - | 65.7% |
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 96.6% | 55.1% | 4.4% | <0.1% | 63.4% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 91.8% | 39.9% | 2.0% | - | 24.1% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 99.2% | 60.2% | 4.6% | - | 16.1% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 80.8% | 22.5% | 0.4% | - | 13.3% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 98.4% | 57.0% | 4.6% | - | 7.3% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 97.2% | 53.1% | 3.0% | - | 3.8% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 88.1% | 30.4% | 0.9% | - | 3.2% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 96.6% | 42.8% | 1.6% | - | 1.4% |
| NevadaNEV | 100% | 100% | 72.4% | 12.0% | - | 0.9% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | 61.0% | 4.6% | - | 0.8% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 100% | 52.9% | 3.7% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-21
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | 13.1% | 33.1% | 32.1% | 15.9% | 4.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3 |
| Boise StateBOIS(1-0) | 11.6% | 30.6% | 32.6% | 18.4% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | - | 6.2 |
| Fresno StateFRES(1-0) | 1.8% | 11.8% | 27.1% | 31.6% | 19.6% | 6.8% | 1.2% | <0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| San José StateSJSU(0-0) | 1.6% | 8.6% | 20.9% | 28.7% | 23.7% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| Utah StateUSU(1-0) | 0.5% | 4.6% | 16.2% | 29.8% | 29.5% | 15.3% | 3.9% | 0.4% | - | 4.5 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.5% | 8.2% | 21.2% | 30.3% | 24.4% | 11.3% | 2.7% | 0.3% | 3.9 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.2% | 6.3% | 16.8% | 27.6% | 26.9% | 15.6% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 3.6 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.7% | 14.7% | 26.9% | 28.8% | 17.7% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 3.4 |
| Air ForceAF(0-2) | - | - | 0.8% | 7.4% | 24.1% | 34.4% | 24.2% | 8.1% | 1.0% | 3.0 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.3% | 9.2% | 20.8% | 29.3% | 24.8% | 11.2% | 2.1% | 2.9 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.5% | 11.8% | 25.1% | 31.8% | 21.4% | 5.8% | 2.3 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 6.7% | 19.8% | 33.4% | 28.9% | 10.0% | 1.9 |
Data from 2025-09-21