Hawai'iRainbow Warriors

3-2 T4th (0-1) in MWC

Data from 2025-09-21 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsStanfordSTAN	W23-20
1	8/30	@ArizonaARIZ	L6-40
2	9/06	vsSam HoustonSHSU	W37-20
3	9/13	vsPortland StatePRST	W23-3
4	9/20	vsFresno StateFRES	L21-23
5	9/27	@Air ForceAF	Win prob:22%
7	10/11	vsUtah StateUSU	Win prob:28%
8	10/18	@Colorado StateCSU	Win prob:25%
10	11/01	@San José StateSJSU	Win prob:18%
11	11/08	vsSan Diego StateSDSU	Win prob:49%
13	11/21	@UNLVUNLV	Win prob:6%
14	11/29	vsWyomingWYO	Win prob:41%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-1	0%	100.0%
6-2	0.1%	52.9%
5-3	1.1%	3.7%
4-4	6.7%	0%
3-5	19.8%	0%
2-6	33.4%	0%
1-7	28.9%	0%
0-8	10.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

33.3%

33.3%

22.2%

11.1%

0.0%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Utah StateUSU@VanderbiltVAN	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Washington StateWSU@Colorado StateCSU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
San Diego StateSDSU@Northern IllinoisNIU	0.1% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
Hawai'iHAW@Air ForceAF	0.3% (+0.2%)	0.0% (-0.1%)
San José StateSJSU@StanfordSTAN	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (-0.0%)
New Mexico StateNMSU@New MexicoUNM	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
App StateAPP@Boise StateBOIS	0.1% (+0.1%)	0.1% (-0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Vanderbilt

Colorado State

Northern Illinois

Hawai'i

San José State

New Mexico State

App State

CCG: 3.0% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Hawai'i

CCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 21.8%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

49.6%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

40.9%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

4.2%

1.0%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.5%

<0.1%

10.5%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

5.6%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.2%

4.2%

0.2%

3.6%

0.1%

3.6%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.1%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-21 • SportsSimulate.com