Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:72% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:87% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:49% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:60% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:39% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 4.3% | 94.5% |
| 6-2 | 19.1% | 36.0% |
| 5-3 | 32.6% | 1.4% |
| 4-4 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 12.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.4% (-0.0%) | 11.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.4% (+0.0%) | 11.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.2% (-1.3%) | 12.0% (+0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
Florida International
DelawareCCG: 12.5% • Scenario: 9.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DelawareCCG: 12.0% • Scenario: 69.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.5%
4.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28