Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:24% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:28% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:6% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.2% | 92.5% |
| 6-2 | 2.4% | 37.0% |
| 5-3 | 10.9% | 1.2% |
| 4-4 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 33.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 21.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 5.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.3% (+0.0%) | 1.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.4% (+0.1%) | 1.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.2% (-0.0%) | 1.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Florida International
Western KentuckyCCG: 1.5% • Scenario: 4.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida InternationalCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 27.4%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
92.3%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
89.5%
0.1%
80.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
37.1%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.8%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.7%
<0.1%45.5%
0.1%43.4%
0.2%41.6%
0.3%40.7%
0.1%36.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.7%
0.6%31.6%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%17.0%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28