Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-28
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-0 | 4-1 | 40.8% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 2-0 | 4-1 | 19.8% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 1-0 | 2-3 | 83.2% | |
| T1 |  DelawareDEL | 1-0 | 3-1 | 38.5% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 1-0 | 3-2 | 1.2% | |
| T6 |  LibertyLIB | 0-1 | 1-4 | 11.4% | |
| T6 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2.9% | |
| T6 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1.3% | |
| T6 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-1 | 0-4 | 0.3% | |
| T6 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.2% | |
| T6 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0.2% | |
| T6 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 83.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 83.1% (-0.1%) | 83.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 82.9% (-0.3%) | 83.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 83.5% (+0.3%) | 83.1% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateFlorida InternationalWestern KentuckyCCG: 84.3% • Scenario: 3.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UConnCCG: 83.3% • Scenario: 72.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 96.4% | 56.5% | 3.7% | 83.2% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 90.9% | 36.4% | 1.8% | 40.8% |
| DelawareDEL | 100% | 97.0% | 44.5% | 2.0% | 38.5% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 96.4% | 34.4% | 1.2% | 19.8% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 94.5% | 36.0% | 1.4% | 11.4% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 90.0% | 30.1% | 1.1% | 2.9% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | 95.6% | 32.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 92.5% | 37.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 100% | 49.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 94.1% | 35.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | 75.9% | 26.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | 100% | 47.6% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(1-0) | 32.3% | 40.4% | 20.8% | 5.6% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | 7.0 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-0) | 6.2% | 23.8% | 34.5% | 24.5% | 9.2% | 1.7% | 0.1% | - | - | 5.9 |
| DelawareDEL(1-0) | 3.6% | 19.5% | 34.5% | 28.1% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | - | 5.7 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(2-0) | 0.9% | 9.0% | 28.5% | 37.8% | 19.7% | 3.9% | 0.3% | - | - | 5.2 |
| LibertyLIB(0-1) | - | 4.3% | 19.1% | 32.6% | 27.6% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-1) | - | 0.9% | 6.3% | 19.1% | 30.2% | 26.4% | 13.2% | 3.4% | 0.4% | 3.7 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-1) | - | 0.3% | 2.8% | 12.6% | 26.7% | 30.7% | 19.7% | 6.4% | 0.8% | 3.3 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.4% | 10.9% | 26.2% | 33.4% | 21.4% | 5.4% | - | 3.2 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.6% | 4.2% | 15.0% | 28.8% | 31.0% | 16.7% | 3.7% | 2.5 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 13.7% | 29.0% | 32.1% | 17.8% | 3.6% | 2.4 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 13.5% | 28.4% | 32.0% | 18.2% | 4.1% | 2.4 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 9.1% | 23.8% | 34.2% | 24.1% | 6.9% | 2.1 |
Data from 2025-09-28