Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W35-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L7-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W38-16 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:70% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:27% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:51% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:87% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 3.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 19.5% | 97.0% |
| 6-2 | 34.5% | 44.5% |
| 5-3 | 28.1% | 2.0% |
| 4-4 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 38.4% (-0.1%) | 38.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 38.3% (-0.2%) | 38.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 14.2% (-24.3%) | 49.0% (+10.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Florida InternationalDelawareCCG: 49.7% • Scenario: 10.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
DelawareCCG: 49.0% • Scenario: 69.6%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.2%Any 1 loss
97.4%
12.9%
100.0%
1.4%100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.3%
99.6%
0.3%
98.4%
2.1%
96.8%
6.0%
96.3%
0.9%
94.0%
1.3%Any 2 losses
59.3%
28.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%98.6%
1.5%96.9%
4.2%96.8%
0.7%93.4%
0.9%92.5%
<0.1%89.6%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%73.4%
0.9%72.5%
0.7%72.0%
1.5%70.3%
0.5%67.8%
0.3%67.8%
0.3%58.0%
0.3%53.4%
0.1%49.8%
0.2%49.5%
0.1%48.9%
<0.1%48.4%
0.2%46.1%
6.0%43.3%
1.3%39.6%
0.9%30.8%
2.6%28.9%
0.6%19.8%
3.6%Any 3 losses
22.9%
28.9%94.4%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%76.2%
0.5%74.3%
0.7%73.3%
1.0%69.7%
0.3%67.5%
0.2%63.4%
0.2%61.6%
0.1%59.1%
<0.1%53.8%
0.2%50.8%
0.1%50.5%
0.1%48.5%
0.1%47.5%
4.1%40.0%
0.9%39.3%
0.7%30.2%
1.8%25.6%
0.4%19.5%
2.5%13.4%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
0.9%4.1%
0.7%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
1.4%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.6%2.6%
0.1%2.3%
0.6%2.3%
0.3%2.0%
0.4%1.6%
0.4%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
2.6%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.8%1.0%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
3.4%0.5%
0.6%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28