Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W42-17 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-27 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L25-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L11-30 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:28% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:48% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:44% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:12% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:30% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:13% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.0% | 94.1% |
| 6-2 | 0.4% | 35.2% |
| 5-3 | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 4-4 | 13.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 17.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 3.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
45.0%
20.0%
20.0%
15.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Florida International
DelawareCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 10.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Sam HoustonDelawareCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 37.1%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
94.1%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28