Western KentuckyHilltoppers

4-1 T1st (2-0) in CUSA

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

19.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsSam HoustonSHSU	W41-24
1	8/30	vsNorth AlabamaUNA	W55-6
2	9/06	@ToledoTOL	L21-45
4	9/20	vsNevadaNEV	W31-16
5	9/27	@Missouri StateMOST	W27-22
6	10/03	@DelawareDEL	Win prob:30%
7	10/14	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	Win prob:70%
8	10/21	@Louisiana TechLT	Win prob:34%
10	11/01	vsNew Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:85%
12	11/15	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:83%
13	11/22	@LSULSU	Win prob:10%
14	11/29	@Jacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:18%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.9%	100.0%
7-1	9.0%	96.4%
6-2	28.5%	34.4%
5-3	37.8%	1.2%
4-4	19.7%	0%
3-5	3.9%	0%
2-6	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

66.1%

14.6%

14.6%

3.4%

1.2%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Sam HoustonSHSU@New Mexico StateNMSU	19.9% (+0.1%)	19.8% (-0.1%)
Florida InternationalFIU@UConnCONN	20.1% (+0.2%)	19.8% (-0.1%)
Western KentuckyWKU@DelawareDEL	42.0% (+22.2%)	10.2% (-9.7%)

Best Winner Combination for

Sam Houston

Florida International

Western Kentucky

CCG: 42.9% • Scenario: 4.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Western Kentucky

CCG: 42.0% • Scenario: 30.4%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

97.9%

1.7%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.9%

0.2%

95.4%

0.4%

93.9%

0.2%

93.3%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

81.1%

10.9%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

0.1%

96.7%

1.9%

96.4%

3.9%

94.8%

1.6%

69.7%

<0.1%

65.0%

<0.1%

64.8%

<0.1%

64.3%

<0.1%

62.2%

0.2%

58.8%

<0.1%

57.5%

<0.1%

53.8%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

28.6%

0.4%

27.8%

0.9%

24.9%

0.8%

Any 3 losses

32.3%

27.5%

86.2%

<0.1%

83.6%

<0.1%

81.8%

<0.1%

68.6%

0.8%

67.0%

0.7%

62.1%

1.7%

58.1%

0.4%

56.7%

0.4%

52.8%

0.3%

52.6%

0.8%

52.6%

0.3%

52.3%

0.7%

30.7%

3.5%

26.0%

8.9%

24.2%

7.3%

18.2%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

3.7%

0.4%

3.7%

0.2%

3.3%

0.2%

3.2%

0.2%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.0%

0.4%

2.0%

0.1%

1.6%

0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com