Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities

CCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	Overall
Texas StateTXST	100%	86.6%	64.8%	35.5%	7.2%	0.1%	60.9%
James MadisonJMU	100%	75.4%	45.3%	15.8%	2.8%	-	55.3%
MarshallMRSH	-	100%	66.1%	29.2%	2.8%	-	23.0%
Old DominionODU	100%	47.5%	13.6%	2.6%	0.3%	-	16.8%
TroyTROY	100%	59.5%	28.1%	5.1%	0.5%	-	15.7%
South AlabamaUSA	-	100%	44.3%	7.6%	0.7%	-	14.6%
LouisianaUL	100%	75.6%	41.8%	3.7%	-	-	7.3%
App StateAPP	-	100%	45.4%	5.6%	0.5%	-	3.8%
Georgia SouthernGASO	-	27.0%	5.1%	0.6%	<0.1%	-	0.6%
Coastal CarolinaCCU	100%	55.9%	7.4%	0.5%	-	-	0.6%
Arkansas StateARST	-	100%	33.4%	9.3%	1.6%	-	0.5%
Southern MissUSM	100%	61.5%	22.6%	3.2%	-	-	0.5%
UL MonroeULM	-	64.3%	25.4%	8.8%	1.5%	<0.1%	0.4%
Georgia StateGAST	-	-	29.4%	14.7%	1.5%	-	<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Team	8-0	7-1	6-2	5-3	4-4	3-5	2-6	1-7	0-8	Avg Wins
James MadisonJMU(1-0)	12.3%	33.3%	33.5%	16.1%	4.2%	0.6%	<0.1%	0.0%	-	6.3
Texas StateTXST(0-0)	8.2%	26.2%	33.3%	22.0%	8.2%	1.8%	0.2%	<0.1%	0.0%	6.0
Old DominionODU(0-0)	3.3%	17.4%	32.5%	28.8%	13.8%	3.7%	0.5%	<0.1%	0.0%	5.5
TroyTROY(0-0)	1.1%	9.2%	25.9%	32.5%	21.5%	7.9%	1.7%	0.2%	<0.1%	5.0
South AlabamaUSA(0-1)	-	3.3%	19.1%	35.1%	28.3%	11.5%	2.5%	0.3%	<0.1%	4.7
MarshallMRSH(0-1)	-	3.3%	15.3%	29.9%	30.0%	16.1%	4.7%	0.7%	<0.1%	4.4
LouisianaUL(1-0)	0.1%	2.0%	11.1%	27.4%	34.3%	19.9%	4.7%	0.4%	-	4.3
Georgia SouthernGASO(0-1)	-	0.6%	6.0%	20.2%	32.9%	26.7%	11.3%	2.2%	0.2%	3.8
App StateAPP(0-1)	-	0.4%	4.7%	19.3%	33.3%	27.8%	11.8%	2.5%	0.2%	3.7
Coastal CarolinaCCU(1-0)	<0.1%	0.4%	3.4%	14.8%	31.9%	33.4%	14.0%	2.0%	-	3.6
Southern MissUSM(1-0)	0.0%	0.1%	1.1%	6.2%	20.0%	34.3%	29.8%	8.5%	-	2.9
UL MonroeULM(1-0)	0.0%	<0.1%	0.2%	2.2%	10.5%	27.5%	38.0%	21.5%	-	2.3
Arkansas StateARST(0-1)	-	<0.1%	0.3%	2.7%	11.3%	26.7%	33.6%	20.6%	4.8%	2.3
Georgia StateGAST(0-0)	0.0%	0.0%	<0.1%	0.2%	1.7%	8.4%	24.4%	39.0%	26.2%	1.2

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com