TroyTrojans

2-2 T6th (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

15.7%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsNichollsNICH	W38-20
2	9/06	@ClemsonCLEM	L16-27
3	9/13	vsMemphisMEM	L7-28
4	9/20	@BuffaloBUF	W21-17
6	10/04	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	Win prob:57%
7	10/11	@Texas StateTXST	Win prob:23%
8	10/18	@UL MonroeULM	Win prob:80%
9	10/25	vsLouisianaUL	Win prob:68%
10	11/01	vsArkansas StateARST	Win prob:81%
12	11/13	@Old DominionODU	Win prob:30%
13	11/22	vsGeorgia StateGAST	Win prob:89%
14	11/29	@Southern MissUSM	Win prob:76%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	1.1%	100.0%
7-1	9.2%	59.5%
6-2	25.9%	28.1%
5-3	32.5%	5.1%
4-4	21.5%	0.5%
3-5	7.9%	0%
2-6	1.7%	0%
1-7	0.2%	0%
0-8	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

55.6%

22.6%

17.4%

3.9%

0.6%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
South AlabamaUSA@TroyTROY	5.0% (-10.6%)	23.8% (+8.1%)
Texas StateTXST@Arkansas StateARST	14.4% (-1.3%)	22.2% (+6.6%)
Coastal CarolinaCCU@Old DominionODU	15.7% (+0.1%)	15.7% (-0.0%)
Oregon StateORST@App StateAPP	15.7% (+0.0%)	15.7% (+0.0%)
UL MonroeULM@NorthwesternNU	15.6% (-0.0%)	15.7% (+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@Georgia StateGAST	15.6% (-0.0%)	15.9% (+0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

Troy

Arkansas State

Old Dominion

Oregon State

UL Monroe

Georgia State

CCG: 60.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Troy

CCG: 23.8% • Scenario: 56.8%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

1.1%

Any 1 loss

59.5%

9.2%

100.0%

2.8%

100.0%

0.1%

99.5%

0.4%

99.3%

0.3%

98.1%

0.3%

77.0%

0.6%

53.3%

0.9%

18.6%

3.9%

Any 2 losses

31.9%

22.9%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.4%

0.7%

99.0%

0.7%

98.2%

0.9%

93.3%

<0.1%

78.3%

1.3%

74.6%

<0.1%

53.4%

2.2%

52.5%

0.1%

37.8%

<0.1%

33.8%

<0.1%

20.6%

<0.1%

20.1%

9.1%

19.2%

0.1%

18.9%

0.5%

15.9%

0.1%

12.0%

0.2%

11.5%

0.2%

9.3%

0.2%

8.2%

0.3%

3.9%

1.0%

3.7%

1.2%

2.5%

0.9%

2.3%

0.4%

0.6%

1.9%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com