ULM

UL MonroeWarhawks

3-1 T1st (1-0) in SBC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

ULMSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/28
vsSt. Francis (PA)SFPA
W29-0
29/06
@AlabamaALA
L0-73
49/20
@UTEPUTEP
W31-25
59/27
vsArkansas StARST
W28-16
610/04
@NorthwesternNU
Win prob:13%
710/11
@Coastal CarCCU
Win prob:27%
810/18
vsTroyTROY
Win prob:20%
910/25
@Southern MissUSM
Win prob:36%
1011/01
vsOld DominionODU
Win prob:13%
1211/15
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
Win prob:19%
1311/22
@Texas StTXST
Win prob:5%
1411/29
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:16%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
0%
7-1
0.0%
64.3%
6-2
0.2%
25.4%
5-3
2.2%
8.8%
4-4
10.5%
1.5%
3-5
27.5%
0.0%
2-6
38.0%
0%
1-7
21.5%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely ULM CCG Opponents

if ULM makes the CCG

James MadisonJames Madison
50.0%
Old DominionOld Dominion
26.2%
MarshallMarshall
21.4%
App StateAppalachian St
2.4%
Georgia SouthernGa Southern
0.0%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMThis Week's Impact

Game
ULMCCG OddsAway
ULMCCG OddsHome
South AlabamaUSA@TroyTROY
0.4%
(-0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
Texas StTXST@Arkansas StARST
0.4%
(-0.1%)		0.8%
(+0.4%)
Coastal CarCCU@Old DominionODU
0.4%
(-0.1%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
Oregon StORST@Appalachian StAPP
0.4%
(-0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
ULMULM@NorthwesternNU
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@Georgia StGAST
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for ULM

TroyTroyArkansas StArkansas StateCoastal CarCoastal CarolinaOregon StOregon StateULMUL MonroeJames MadisonJames Madison

CCG: 4.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for ULM

Arkansas StArkansas StateJames MadisonJames Madison

CCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 14.9%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
ULM CCG Probability
Likelihood
Troy
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
28.6%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth Alabama
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas St
28.6%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
29.4%
0.3%
Coastal CarNorthwesternOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwesternTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaOld Dominion
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternOld Dominion
75.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionTroy
70.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaNorthwestern
66.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionSouth Alabama
66.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionSouth Alabama
58.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOld DominionTexas St
40.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarOld DominionTexas St
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaOld DominionSouth Alabama
25.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouth AlabamaTroy
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisianaSouth Alabama
25.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarNorthwesternTexas St
21.1%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouthern MissTroy
20.0%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaSouthern Miss
20.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternSouth Alabama
16.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern MissTexas St
16.7%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouthern MissTexas St
14.3%
<0.1%
Old DominionSouth AlabamaTroy
9.1%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorthwesternTexas St
7.1%
<0.1%
NorthwesternSouthern MissTexas St
5.6%
<0.1%
Old DominionTexas StTroy
4.0%
<0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

ULMCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com