Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L12-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W34-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-52 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L31-34 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W54-51 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:13% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:32% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.0% | 75.6% |
| 6-2 | 11.1% | 41.8% |
| 5-3 | 27.4% | 3.7% |
| 4-4 | 34.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.1% (-0.2%) | 7.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 7.0% (-0.3%) | 9.0% (+1.7%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.0%) | 7.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.5% (+0.1%) | 7.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.6% (+0.3%) | 7.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.3% (+0.0%) | 7.1% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South Alabama
Arkansas State
Coastal Carolina
Oregon State
UL Monroe
Georgia StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Arkansas StateCCG: 9.0% • Scenario: 16.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
75.7%
2.0%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%67.3%
0.3%
62.9%
0.3%
20.3%
0.4%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28