Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
23.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-45 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L20-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W38-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W42-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L51-54 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:55% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:47% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:40% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:87% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 3.3% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 15.3% | 66.1% |
| 5-3 | 29.9% | 29.2% |
| 4-4 | 30.0% | 2.8% |
| 3-5 | 16.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 22.9% (-0.0%) | 23.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 23.0% (+0.0%) | 22.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 23.5% (+0.5%) | 22.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.7% (-0.2%) | 23.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.6% (-0.3%) | 23.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.7% (-0.3%) | 26.6% (+3.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Troy
Arkansas State
Coastal Carolina
Oregon State
UL Monroe
Georgia StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Georgia StateCCG: 26.6% • Scenario: 6.8%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.3%Any 1 loss
66.1%
15.3%
100.0%
3.7%99.6%
0.5%97.6%
0.9%
96.7%
0.9%
89.5%
2.2%
62.1%
2.6%
14.8%
4.6%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28