Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 3-0 | 5-1 | 46.5% | |
| T1 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-0 | 4-1 | 49.8% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 1-0 | 2-3 | 67.2% | |
| T1 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 1-0 | 3-2 | 1.7% | |
| T5 |  DelawareDEL | 1-1 | 3-2 | 19.3% | |
| T5 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-1 | 3-2 | 0.4% | |
| T7 |  LibertyLIB | 0-1 | 1-4 | 8.3% | |
| T7 |  Missouri StateMOST | 0-1 | 2-3 | 4.0% | |
| T7 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 0-1 | 2-3 | 2.3% | |
| T7 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.2% | |
| T7 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.1% | |
| T7 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 0-2 | 0-5 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 67.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0% (-0.3%) | 67.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 67.1% (-0.1%) | 67.5% (+0.3%) | |
| 71.1% (+3.9%) | 47.1% (-20.1%) | |
| 66.0% (-1.3%) | 71.5% (+4.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeUTEPJacksonville StateKennesaw StateCCG: 77.7% • Scenario: 1.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 71.1% • Scenario: 83.9%
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 96.4% | 53.8% | 3.5% | 67.2% |
| Louisiana TechLT | 100% | 95.4% | 45.8% | 2.4% | 49.8% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 96.8% | 40.9% | 2.4% | 46.5% |
| DelawareDEL | - | 97.5% | 38.9% | 1.4% | 19.3% |
| LibertyLIB | - | 92.4% | 32.8% | 1.3% | 8.3% |
| Missouri StateMOST | - | 90.1% | 30.2% | 1.1% | 4.0% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | 98.0% | 44.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 93.8% | 36.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | 82.7% | 32.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 100% | 39.6% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | 100% | 57.9% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | - | 64.9% | 4.1% | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(1-0) | 16.5% | 35.0% | 30.6% | 13.8% | 3.5% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.5 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-0) | 7.9% | 26.7% | 34.8% | 22.0% | 7.3% | 1.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.0 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(3-0) | 4.4% | 24.9% | 42.6% | 23.1% | 4.7% | 0.3% | - | - | - | 6.0 |
| DelawareDEL(1-1) | - | 7.8% | 28.7% | 36.8% | 20.6% | 5.4% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | 5.1 |
| LibertyLIB(0-1) | - | 3.0% | 15.7% | 30.9% | 29.8% | 15.6% | 4.4% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Missouri StateMOST(0-1) | - | 1.3% | 8.6% | 22.5% | 31.2% | 23.6% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% | 3.9 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 12.9% | 27.9% | 32.3% | 18.9% | 4.3% | - | 3.4 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(0-1) | - | 0.4% | 3.7% | 14.0% | 27.4% | 30.0% | 18.0% | 5.7% | 0.8% | 3.4 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 21.7% | 34.8% | 27.8% | 8.2% | - | 2.9 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 12.1% | 27.3% | 32.8% | 19.8% | 4.6% | 2.3 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 8.8% | 23.5% | 33.7% | 24.7% | 7.4% | 2.1 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.9% | 6.6% | 22.1% | 36.0% | 26.8% | 7.6% | 2.0 |
Data from 2025-10-05