Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W35-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L7-31 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-41 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W38-16 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | L24-27 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:38% | |
| 9 | 10/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:54% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:59% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 7.8% | 97.5% |
| 6-2 | 28.7% | 38.9% |
| 5-3 | 36.8% | 1.4% |
| 4-4 | 20.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 19.1% (-0.3%) | 19.8% (+0.5%) | |
| 18.9% (-0.4%) | 20.3% (+1.1%) | |
| 18.6% (-0.7%) | 23.1% (+3.8%) | |
| 18.5% (-0.8%) | 21.9% (+2.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Missouri State
UTEP
Sam Houston
Kennesaw StateCCG: 27.9% • Scenario: 0.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Sam HoustonCCG: 23.1% • Scenario: 16.1%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.5%
4.5%Any 1 loss
48.7%
19.9%
97.5%
3.3%
62.9%
0.6%59.9%
1.1%58.8%
0.6%
50.1%
3.9%
31.0%
3.1%
30.2%
7.5%Any 2 losses
14.9%
33.4%63.8%
0.7%62.6%
0.4%61.1%
0.4%48.3%
2.8%30.5%
5.4%30.4%
2.3%4.7%
0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.6%
0.9%3.4%
0.5%3.1%
0.4%2.4%
1.0%2.3%
1.6%2.3%
0.8%1.7%
0.4%1.5%
0.7%1.3%
0.4%1.2%
2.7%1.0%
6.5%0.5%
5.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05