Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L9-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L9-56 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-13 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W28-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-16 | |
| 7 | 10/09 | Win prob:23% | |
| 8 | 10/21 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/28 | Win prob:60% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:11% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.4% | 93.8% |
| 6-2 | 3.2% | 36.8% |
| 5-3 | 12.9% | 1.3% |
| 4-4 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 32.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 18.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 4.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.7% (+0.0%) | 1.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.1%) | 2.2% (+0.4%) | |
| 0.5% (-1.2%) | 5.7% (+4.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle Tennessee
UTEP
Sam HoustonKennesaw StateCCG: 10.0% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 5.7% • Scenario: 22.9%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
93.7%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%
97.1%
<0.1%
96.4%
<0.1%
96.3%
<0.1%
94.4%
<0.1%
93.5%
0.1%
86.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
36.9%
3.3%73.3%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.4%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.0%
0.2%53.2%
<0.1%52.9%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%41.8%
0.1%39.7%
0.4%38.5%
<0.1%38.4%
0.1%37.3%
0.1%35.6%
0.2%35.0%
0.1%34.5%
0.7%32.4%
0.3%17.1%
0.5%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05