Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W28-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L24-34 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L13-23 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L7-21 | |
| 7 | 10/08 | Win prob:72% | |
| 7 | 10/14 | Win prob:87% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:46% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:69% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:57% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:33% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:81% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 3.0% | 92.4% |
| 6-2 | 15.7% | 32.8% |
| 5-3 | 30.9% | 1.3% |
| 4-4 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 15.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.4% (+0.0%) | 8.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.6% (+2.3%) | 2.6% (-5.7%) | |
| 7.9% (-0.4%) | 10.6% (+2.2%) | |
| 7.9% (-0.5%) | 9.9% (+1.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeLiberty
Sam Houston
Kennesaw StateCCG: 16.7% • Scenario: 0.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 10.6% • Scenario: 71.4%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.4%
3.0%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05