Western KentuckyHilltoppers

5-1 T1st (3-0) in CUSA

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

46.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/23	vsSam HoustonSHSU	W41-24
1	8/30	vsNorth AlabamaUNA	W55-6
2	9/06	@ToledoTOL	L21-45
4	9/20	vsNevadaNEV	W31-16
5	9/27	@Missouri StateMOST	W27-22
6	10/03	@DelawareDEL	W27-24
7	10/14	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	Win prob:70%
8	10/21	@Louisiana TechLT	Win prob:32%
10	11/01	vsNew Mexico StateNMSU	Win prob:86%
12	11/15	vsMiddle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:84%
13	11/22	@LSULSU	Win prob:9%
14	11/29	@Jacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:27%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	4.4%	100.0%
7-1	24.9%	96.8%
6-2	42.6%	40.9%
5-3	23.1%	2.4%
4-4	4.7%	0%
3-5	0.3%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

50.3%

28.4%

14.2%

4.6%

2.5%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Missouri StateMOST@Middle TennesseeMTSU	46.1% (-0.4%)	47.2% (+0.7%)
LibertyLIB@UTEPUTEP	45.5% (-0.9%)	48.9% (+2.4%)
Jacksonville StateJXST@Sam HoustonSHSU	45.5% (-0.9%)	51.4% (+4.9%)
Louisiana TechLT@Kennesaw StateKENN	44.7% (-1.8%)	52.4% (+5.9%)

Best Winner Combination for

Middle Tennessee

UTEP

Sam Houston

Kennesaw State

CCG: 58.2% • Scenario: 0.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Kennesaw State

CCG: 52.4% • Scenario: 22.9%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.4%

Any 1 loss

98.9%

6.3%

100.0%

4.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

96.4%

1.1%

96.3%

0.8%

Any 2 losses

88.3%

26.7%

99.9%

1.8%

99.9%

0.7%

99.7%

0.8%

96.3%

10.9%

96.2%

8.6%

80.0%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

78.6%

<0.1%

69.1%

0.2%

67.8%

0.2%

63.1%

0.2%

62.4%

0.5%

59.4%

0.2%

58.6%

0.4%

25.7%

2.4%

Any 3 losses

38.8%

40.7%

84.5%

0.3%

83.0%

0.3%

81.3%

0.1%

68.5%

2.0%

67.1%

1.6%

63.3%

1.6%

62.9%

1.3%

62.1%

4.6%

57.7%

3.6%

25.6%

23.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.0%

<0.1%

7.2%

<0.1%

5.3%

<0.1%

4.2%

<0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

2.9%

0.4%

1.8%

0.4%

1.6%

1.0%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com