Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
58.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L31-34 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L9-37 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W52-35 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W35-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-20 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:84% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:97% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 31.4% | 99.7% |
| 6-2 | 41.7% | 65.2% |
| 5-3 | 20.9% | 1.7% |
| 4-4 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 59.6% (+0.7%) | 57.4% (-1.5%) | |
| 57.5% (-1.3%) | 61.2% (+2.3%) | |
| 58.3% (-0.5%) | 60.0% (+1.1%) | |
| 58.6% (-0.3%) | 62.3% (+3.4%) | |
| 59.5% (+0.6%) | 58.7% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan
Akron
Ball StateCCG: 76.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Bowling GreenCCG: 61.2% • Scenario: 36.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.7%
31.4%Any 1 loss
65.2%
41.7%90.3%
4.1%89.3%
0.9%
72.7%
6.2%
69.1%
5.8%
62.7%
12.1%
52.2%
12.6%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05