Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L10-23 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-6 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-28 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L17-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L17-20 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W31-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:84% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:93% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:38% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/19 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 16.2% | 95.0% |
| 6-2 | 35.3% | 18.5% |
| 5-3 | 32.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 11.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.7% (+0.0%) | 24.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.1% (-1.6%) | 27.4% (+2.8%) | |
| 24.0% (-0.7%) | 26.1% (+1.4%) | |
| 24.4% (-0.3%) | 28.1% (+3.5%) | |
| 25.4% (+0.7%) | 24.5% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kent State
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
Akron
Ball StateCCG: 37.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Bowling GreenCCG: 27.4% • Scenario: 36.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.7%Any 1 loss
95.0%
16.2%
99.6%
0.5%99.6%
4.2%
99.1%
0.9%98.4%
0.2%
94.4%
3.6%
91.6%
6.9%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05