Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
36.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L16-24 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W45-21 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W60-0 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L13-14 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-3 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:63% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:99% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:71% | |
| 11 | 11/05 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:52% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:95% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 22.2% | 98.9% |
| 6-2 | 42.8% | 32.9% |
| 5-3 | 27.5% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 6.7% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 35.5% (-0.7%) | 37.5% (+1.4%) | |
| 50.8% (+14.6%) | 10.9% (-25.2%) | |
| 36.6% (+0.4%) | 35.3% (-0.9%) | |
| 35.6% (-0.6%) | 43.6% (+7.4%) | |
| 38.6% (+2.4%) | 35.5% (-0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
MassachusettsToledo
Eastern Michigan
Akron
Ball StateCCG: 68.6% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
ToledoCCG: 50.8% • Scenario: 63.3%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.0%
15.7%Any 1 loss
44.6%
36.9%
98.9%
6.6%
69.8%
0.2%
64.8%
1.7%62.2%
0.8%
50.7%
3.9%
30.7%
9.0%
23.5%
14.7%Any 2 losses
24.6%
16.8%67.1%
<0.1%65.9%
0.7%57.3%
0.3%51.9%
1.6%31.9%
3.8%23.3%
6.0%3.9%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
1.6%0.7%
1.0%0.6%
0.7%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05