Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | L0-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L0-68 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L28-31 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W51-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L3-45 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W28-22 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:7% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:7% | |
| 10 | 11/04 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/11 | Win prob:75% | |
| 12 | 11/18 | Win prob:6% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.2% | 25.7% |
| 5-3 | 2.6% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 16.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 41.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 32.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 6.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.6%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Massachusetts
Bowling Green
Northern IllinoisAkron
Ball StateCCG: 2.1% • Scenario: 0.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
AkronCCG: 0.6% • Scenario: 7.2%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05