Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Fresno StateFRES | 2-0 | 5-1 | 37.3% | |
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 1-0 | 3-2 | 69.4% | |
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 1-0 | 5-0 | 55.4% | |
| T1 |  San José StateSJSU | 1-0 | 2-3 | 12.6% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 1-0 | 4-1 | 11.8% | |
| T1 |  Utah StateUSU | 1-0 | 3-2 | 9.0% | |
| 7 |  Hawai'iHAW | 1-1 | 4-2 | 0.6% | |
| T8 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-1 | 3-2 | 2.7% | |
| T8 |  WyomingWYO | 0-1 | 2-3 | 0.7% | |
| T8 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.5% | |
| T8 |  NevadaNEV | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.2% | |
| T8 |  Air ForceAF | 0-3 | 1-4 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 69.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 68.2% (-1.1%) | 70.8% (+1.4%) | |
| 69.5% (+0.1%) | 69.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 47.2% (-22.1%) | 73.8% (+4.4%) | |
| 68.8% (-0.5%) | 70.4% (+1.1%) | |
| 74.2% (+4.8%) | 68.6% (-0.8%) | |
| 67.8% (-1.5%) | 72.7% (+3.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
WyomingHawai'iBoise StateNevadaAir ForceColorado StateCCG: 85.3% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 73.8% • Scenario: 83.5%
Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.4% | 57.5% | 4.1% | 69.4% |
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 86.6% | 28.9% | 1.1% | 55.4% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 95.3% | 43.2% | 2.6% | 37.3% |
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 78.3% | 17.6% | 0.3% | 12.6% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 93.4% | 36.0% | 1.3% | 11.8% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 99.3% | 52.2% | 2.9% | 9.0% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 99.4% | 53.8% | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| WyomingWYO | - | 83.8% | 20.4% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | 94.8% | 42.6% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | 100% | 66.0% | 3.5% | 0.5% |
| NevadaNEV | - | 100% | 73.4% | 8.7% | 0.2% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | 3.0% | <0.1% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(1-0) | 16.5% | 35.0% | 30.4% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.5 |
| UNLVUNLV(1-0) | 13.5% | 37.4% | 32.3% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.4 |
| Fresno StateFRES(2-0) | 3.4% | 19.3% | 34.1% | 28.3% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 0.2% | - | - | 5.6 |
| San José StateSJSU(1-0) | 1.5% | 9.0% | 22.8% | 30.8% | 23.3% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 0.2% | - | 4.9 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(1-0) | 0.6% | 5.0% | 17.1% | 29.4% | 28.2% | 15.1% | 4.2% | 0.5% | - | 4.6 |
| Utah StateUSU(1-0) | 0.2% | 2.4% | 10.9% | 25.8% | 32.2% | 21.1% | 6.7% | 0.8% | - | 4.2 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-1) | - | 0.3% | 3.8% | 16.6% | 31.1% | 29.4% | 14.7% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 3.5 |
| WyomingWYO(0-1) | - | 0.2% | 2.2% | 10.1% | 23.6% | 30.9% | 22.7% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 3.1 |
| Hawai'iHAW(1-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.1% | 7.2% | 22.1% | 34.3% | 26.9% | 8.4% | - | 3.0 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.9% | 14.1% | 29.1% | 31.6% | 17.2% | 3.6% | 2.5 |
| Air ForceAF(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.6% | 6.7% | 24.2% | 36.8% | 25.4% | 6.4% | 2.0 |
| NevadaNEV(0-1) | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 1.0% | 5.2% | 17.0% | 31.9% | 31.7% | 13.2% | 1.7 |
Data from 2025-10-05